Does Apple Need to Fill the Gap?

Posted on March 30, 2012 by macromon

Apple is down almost $10 (1.63%) today,  which is a surprise given the overall market is up.   After making an all-time high at $621.45 on Wednesday (note the Doji candlestick) the stock has traded down, most likely on profit taking into quarter end.

We were in the local Apple store last Friday and were surprised by the lack of enthusiasm over the new iPad.   Also we noted a couple of customers asking for financing on their new purchases, which Apple does provide — no interest on for 6 months on purchases under $999 and 12 months for over purchases $999.   All anecdotal, but interesting, nonetheless.

Given the stock’s parabolic move — almost 50 percent in Q1 –, that almost all the good news should be priced, and the lack of bears on the stock,  we think it is not out of the question the stock moves down to fill the March 14th opening gap at $568-578.

We are and have been one Apple’s biggest fans and are huge bulls on this stock, but still think it just needs to consolidate some before repricing higher.  We could be wrong and they might come for this stock at the beginning of the quarter.  But more consolidation and gap fills before earnings next month would be a healthy thing, in our opinion.

(click here if chart and video are not observable)

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France’s River of de Nile

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

Good Economist cover story of the upcoming French elections.  Keep this one on your radar, folks, it could start moving the market needle.     Here’s a little taste of the article,

Yet what is most striking about the French election is how little anybody is saying about the country’s dire economic straits (see article). The candidates dish out at least as many promises to spend more as to spend less. Nobody has a serious agenda for reducing France’s eye-watering taxes. Mr Sarkozy, who in 2007 promised reform with talk of a rupture, now offers voters protectionism, attacks on French tax exiles, threats to quit Europe’s passport-free Schengen zone and (at least before Toulouse) talk of the evils of immigration and halal meat. Mr Hollande promises to expand the state, creating 60,000 teaching posts, partially roll back Mr Sarkozy’s rise in the pension age from 60 to 62, and squeeze the rich (whom he once cheerfully said he did not like), with a 75% top income-tax rate.

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Posted in Euro, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

CNBC Interviews Jim Grant

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

In case you missed this fascinating interview with Jim Grant. He plans to open the “Office of Unintended Consequences” when he is appointed Fed Chairman.

The money quote,

“All of us investors live and work in kind of a hall of mirrors. What we see is not what we think we see it’s what is distorted through central bank manipulation.”

(click here or here if video is not observable)

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Highest Employed Occupation? Retail Clerks…

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

Good stuff from the BLS.   Here’s their latest analysis on U.S. occupations,

Retail salespersons and cashiers were the occupations with the highest employment in 2011. These two occupations combined made up nearly 6 percent of total U.S. employment.

The 10 largest occupations accounted for more than 20 percent of total employment in May 2011. In addition to retail salespersons and cashiers, the largest occupations included general office clerks; combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food; registered nurses; waiters and waitresses; and customer service representatives.

In May 2011, office and administrative support was the largest occupational group, making up nearly 17 percent of total U.S. employment. The next largest groups were sales and related occupations and food preparation and serving related occupations, which made up about 11 and 9 percent of U.S. employment, respectively. Seven of the 10 largest occupations were in one of these three groups.

How long before these jobs are lost to the creative destruction of technology?

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Real Pain in Spain

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

Youth unemployment (<25 years) running at 50 percent!   The stuff the “clash of generations” is made of.  It’s starting to feel the world is about three sparks away.

(click here if video is observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The Obama Economy

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

Click graphic to enlarge and for better resolution.

(click here if graphic is not observable)

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Real Pain in the Eurozone

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

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S&P500 Key Level = 1387

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

After making a new post crash high on Monday,  the S&P500 gone wobbly over the past few days trading poorly alongside global equity markets, though U.S. markets are generally outperforming.    The key must hold support level for S&P500 is now 1387,  which is last Friday’s low and the 20-day moving average.  If that breaks, the long awaited 5 percent correction to, say the 1340 support looks likely,  though a bounce off the 50-day moving average at 1359 is certainly not out of the question.

It’s getting very difficult to navigate and divine markets that are so distorted by quonto easing and zero interest rate monetary policies.   The alternative is to shut your eyes and go “balls to the wall” long with leverage.  It would have payed better over the past few months and maybe that what the Fed wants,  but it’s not our cup of tea.  We like to worry.

(click here if chart is not observable)

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TR50: The 50 Most Innovative Companies (16-20)

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

Here are 16-20 of MIT’s Technology Review’s 50 Most Innovative Companies in 2011.  We’re posting in increments of five every few days as not to overwhelm you with info and required reading.

Click here for 1-5 of TR’s most innovative companies of 2011.
Click here for 6-10 of TR’s most innovative companies of 2011.
Click herefor 11-15 of TR’s most innovative companies of 2011.

Technology Review uses the following criteria to choose the most innovative companies,

What is a TR50 company?   It is a business whose innovations force other businesses to alter their strategic course. TR50 members are nominated by Technology Review’s editors, who look for companies that over the last year have demonstrated original and valuable technology, are bringing that technology to market at a significant scale, and are clearly influencing their competitors.

16)  First Solar
Why: It is reducing the cost of utility-­scale photovoltaic installations.
Key innovation: First Solar constrains costs with vertical integration of everything from plant construction to the manufacture of high-efficiency cadmium telluride cells.

17)  Foundation Medicine
Why: Its new diagnostics exploit a growing understanding of the molecular basis of cancer.
Key innovation: It has developed a comprehensive cancer diagnostic test and is partnering with pharmaceutical companies to use the test in drug development.

18)  General Electric
Why: By building flexible and efficient natural-gas power plants, GE is making it easier for utilities to use intermittent sources of renewable energy.
Key innovation: Gas turbines based on jet engines allow power plants to quickly increase or decrease their electricity generation to compensate for variations in wind or solar power

19)   Goldwind Science and Technology
Why: It is optimizing wind farms for conditions in China.
Key innovation: Wind turbines are specially adapted for the high altitudes and low wind speeds that characterize Chinese wind resources.

20)   Google
Why: Despite its lukewarm performance in social media, Google’s willingness to move into new areas shows it can still be an agenda-setter.
Key innovation: The introduction of Android 4.0 (also known as “Ice Cream Sandwich”), with its crowd-pleasing interface, confirms the company’s position as a major force in mobile computing.

TR – (1-5)
TR – (6-10)
TR – (11-15)

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France’s Campaign Chonicles

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

Interesting analysis of the French elections with the first round slated for next month and the run-off in May.  Here are the latest polls via Reuters,

A survey by TNS-Sofres/Sopra group found that Sarkozy had pulled ahead in voting intentions for the April 22 first-round vote with 29 percent versus 28 percent for Francois Hollande, vying to become France’s first Socialist president since 1995.

Sarkozy gained three points since the previous poll two weeks ago, while Hollande lost two points, the pollster said…

A second survey by pollsters CSA showed Sarkozy consolidating his first round lead. He was steady on 30 percent for the first round, while Hollande slipped by two points to 26 percent versus a poll last month.

Both polls showed Sarkozy paring back his opponent’s lead in the May 6 runoff.

The TNS-Sofres survey showed Hollande beating Sarkozy by 10 percentage points, 55 percent to 45 percent, though the gap had narrowed from 16 points in the previous poll.

The CSA poll, meanwhile, estimated a closer race. It said the gap had narrowed to 6 points, down from 8 points last month, with Hollande on 53 percent to Sarkozy’s 47 percent.

(click here if video is not observable)

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