Apple’s Unbelievable Valuation & Price Sensitivity Analysis

The market is beginning to reprice Apple to a multiple that it deserves, in our opinion, and is getting an added boost today from James Altucher’s call that Apple is a “no brainer…to hit a trillion dollar market cap within the next year.”   That’s a $1,000 stock, folks!

Altucher’s incredulous call caused us to revise our Apple sensitivity analysis.   We couldn’t believe the numbers and we had to check and recheck the data.   We invite you to do the same, which might increase your conviction in the stock.

Apple currently trades at $469, which consists of almost $104 in cash per share.  The company has no debt and has a trailing EPS of $35.11, or a 13.36 multiple and 10.41 cash adjusted multiple.  Extremely cheap given the latest quarter EPS growth exceeded 115% y/y.

Even assuming a conservative growth rate of half the 115% for the rest of the fiscal year, Apple could earn $46 per share this year.  This equates to a cash adjusted P/E ratio of less than 8x.  Stunning!

The stock has run quite a bit and made need to consolidate some gains, but our sense the market is finally starting to believe and is now in full repricing mode, which can take AAPL much higher.  This is an epic company as the world  moves into the Wireless Age.

Long, always with a stop.

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Posted in Apple | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Gold Rebounds as Bernanke Confirms Easy Money

In his testimony at the Senate Budget committee this morning,   Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke,  resisted the temptation to day trade monetary policy on the back of Friday’s good employment data.   Our sense is the global printing press’ and zero interest rates are starting to gain some real traction, which first shows up in the financial and commodity markets.

The new market narrative of 2012 is the power of zero (interest rates),  the power of the printing press,  LTRO2, etc.    The macro swans of 2011 — PIIGS,  U.S. and global recession risk, and China hard landing — have either flown the coop or have been drowned in central bank liquidity.   The China hard landing scenario,  political risk/reform fatigue in Europe,  and middle east geopolitical risk  still need to monitored closely, however.

Gold, which was clocked on the nonfarm payrolls data and fear of subsequent changes to U.S. monetary policy, is bouncing back after being reassured by Ben Bernanke.  Interesting the Senate committee had no questions to Bernanke about revisions to current monetary policy on the improvement in the jobs data.   Stay tuned.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Gold, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Berlin and Paris frustrated as Greeks delay bailout talks

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Posted in Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The New Normal: Resource Poaching

Guess we should get used to it.

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Posted in China, Crude Oil, Geopolitical, Japan | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Week in Review: Rampopotamus Continues

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Posted in Global Stock Performance, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Sign of the Times: Occupy DC “Dismantled”

National Park Service police began slowly dismantling the Occupy DC encampment at McPherson Square on K Street early Saturday morning. Over the course of several hours, cops asked protesters to leave while authorities in hazmat suits combed the park and removed tents. Despite protesters insisting that the temporary structures were in compliance with the latest regulations imposed on the demonstrators, the cops continued to clear out the park throughout the course of the day. With only a small section of McPherson still spared by late afternoon, authorities eventually moved in and used force to clear the rest of the park. Protesters, passersby and journalists alike were assaulted as cops clad in riot gear stormed into the crowd and attacked anyone on the scene. Here cops are showing forcing a group of people out of the park with plastic shields and batons, only for them to fall into the mud and be crammed into a fence that prevented them from easily vacating the premises. Several arrests were reported, including one photojournalist, and many others were injured in the raid, including one RT cameraman.

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Posted in Geopolitical, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Global Trend Indicators: CAC, Hang Seng & SENSEX > 200-day

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Posted in Global Trend Indicators | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Only A “Freak” Would Turn Down Bribes

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Posted in China | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Weekly Eurozone Watch: Portugal Tighter, France < 100 bps

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Posted in Weekly Eurozone Watch | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The Economist Cover: The New Tech Bubble Cometh?

Cool cover of this week’s Economist.

The stars are aligned for a nice little bubble in transformative tech, folks:  1) easy money;  2) a story — the wireless revolution is changing everything;  3)  decent valuation in some of the large cap tech stocks.  such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google;  4)  the recession of last year’s macro swans, at least for now, and hopefully not a real recession in China;  5)  the coming of Facebook, which could cause a revaluation the cheap large cap tech stocks.

Could be wrong, but we’ve seen this picture before and it can last much longer than most think possible.  The party may just be getting started and there is a lot of money out there that needs to get sucked in.   Enjoy the run.

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Posted in Apple, Technology | Tagged , , | 3 Comments