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Tag Archives: Economy
Tariff Reality Roasts the White House
On April 6, the Global Macro Monitor wrote: The strategy’s incoherence is evident in absurd measures such as, for example, a tariff on coffee, an import for which the U.S. lacks viable domestic production except de minimis production in Hawaii and … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – October 31
Global markets ended the week mixed as a U.S.–China trade truce and a widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut drove both relief and uncertainty. While U.S. equities held near record highs, global sentiment was tempered by uneven central bank actions … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – August 15
Investor appetite for risk continues to surge as U.S. corporate credit spreads tighten to levels not seen in nearly three decades. Investment-grade spreads have narrowed to just 88 basis points, the tightest since 1997, according to Bloomberg. A parallel trend … Continue reading
On Becoming Argentina
Today’s Drudge Report headline, with George Washington staring from a dollar bill under the headline “NATL DEBT $37 TRILLION” and accusations of falsified inflation data, encapsulates the growing perception that America’s fiscal and political trajectory is veering toward Banana Republic … Continue reading
The Big Mac Index: My Global Currency Reality Check
As an international economist earlier in my career, I long appreciated The Economist‘s Big Mac Index, a deceptively simple yet revealing tool for assessing purchasing power parity (PPP) and currency under or overvaluation. In the Economist’s latest iteration, the Index … Continue reading
Tariffs and Toothpaste: The Inflation You Didn’t Expect
“This is a highly fluid situation and we’ll need to manage quantity decisions as we measure the price elasticity of impacted items,” underscoring how Walmart adjusts its inventory and pricing strategy based on customers’ sensitivity to price changes.” – John … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – July 11
Markets wrapped up the week with a paradoxical sense of calm, even as trade tensions re-escalated on multiple fronts. At the center of the uncertainty is President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff rhetoric, including threats of sweeping new levies on the … Continue reading
Gagging Dr. Copper and Distorting the Economy
…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022 Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call: “If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – June 27
Last week’s market tone reflected a convergence of stabilizing macro forces: easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But beneath these surface-level catalysts lies a far more powerful narrative: the AI revolution. AI … Continue reading
Straight to $120: The TACO Trade Returns
In 30 minutes, crude oil futures will flicker to life, and this isn’t just another session. With tensions between Israel and Iran hitting kinetic levels, traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz like it’s the Nasdaq in March 2020. One … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 