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Tag Archives: Economy
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – Nov 29
Cracks in Global Economies Amid Easy Financial Conditions Despite the extremely easy financial conditions in the United States as measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), significant economic stress is emerging across key markets, exposing vulnerabilities that … Continue reading
La France sous pression
Key Facts: Market Impact: French 10-year bond yield spreads hit their highest since 2012, reflecting investor concerns about political instability. Budget Controversy: The €60bn budget proposal includes significant austerity measures, risking parliamentary backlash. Political Stakes: Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s … Continue reading
Where’s the Inflation?
Key Facts: The CPI-U rose 0.2% in October, with a 12-month increase of 2.6%. Shelter index rose 0.4%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase. Food prices grew by 0.2% in October, with varying increases between food at home (0.1%) … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – November 1
Bearish Bonds Jobs Report Impact: October’s weaker jobs report initially pushed yields down, hinting at possible accelerated Fed rate cuts, before a quick rebound. Political Influence: Anticipated election outcomes, including potential stimulus under a new administration, could reintroduce inflationary pressures, … Continue reading
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Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, finance, Inflation, Investing
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Bond Market Fundamentals: Rising Risks
QT Scale: G10 central banks reduced balance sheets from $28 trillion to $21.5 trillion since March 2022. Interconnected Risks: Simultaneous QT across central banks could spread funding stress across markets. Bond Market Volatility: Shifting bond ownership to price-sensitive investors could … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – October 18
Weekly SummaryBig rally in Eurozone bond markets as the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key interest rate to 3.25%, marking its third 25 basis point cut this year. The decision reflects the ECB’s focus on lowering inflation risks and … Continue reading
Inflation Falling But Core Sticky
Key Facts: CPI rose by 0.2% in August 2024. Yearly inflation rate decreased to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August. Shelter costs increased by 0.5%, driving most inflation. Food … Continue reading
Leading Economic Indicators
Updated: Thursday, July 18, 2024 Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the … Continue reading
Sharp Drop In ISM Services Index
The Services PMI® fell to 48.8% in June 2024 compared to May’s reading, contracting at the fastest pace in four years. This drop reflects declines in business activity, new orders, and employment, alongside challenges in supplier deliveries and inventory management. … Continue reading
Global PMI: Input costs rise to a 16-month high
Take heed, folks; input costs, as measured in the latest release of the Global Manufacturing PMI, are rising at the fastest clip in 16 months. Manufacturing input costs were a leading indicator of the last wave of inflation. Measured overall, … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 