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Tag Archives: finance
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – October 31
Global markets ended the week mixed as a U.S.–China trade truce and a widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut drove both relief and uncertainty. While U.S. equities held near record highs, global sentiment was tempered by uneven central bank actions … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – August 15
Investor appetite for risk continues to surge as U.S. corporate credit spreads tighten to levels not seen in nearly three decades. Investment-grade spreads have narrowed to just 88 basis points, the tightest since 1997, according to Bloomberg. A parallel trend … Continue reading
On Becoming Argentina
Today’s Drudge Report headline, with George Washington staring from a dollar bill under the headline “NATL DEBT $37 TRILLION” and accusations of falsified inflation data, encapsulates the growing perception that America’s fiscal and political trajectory is veering toward Banana Republic … Continue reading
The Big Mac Index: My Global Currency Reality Check
As an international economist earlier in my career, I long appreciated The Economist‘s Big Mac Index, a deceptively simple yet revealing tool for assessing purchasing power parity (PPP) and currency under or overvaluation. In the Economist’s latest iteration, the Index … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – June 27
Last week’s market tone reflected a convergence of stabilizing macro forces: easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But beneath these surface-level catalysts lies a far more powerful narrative: the AI revolution. AI … Continue reading
Global Risk Montior: Week in Review – June 13
This week presented a paradox that seasoned portfolio and hedge fund managers will recognize immediately: risk is rising, but price action remains oddly composed. With geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East, oil surging, and inflation data surprising to the … Continue reading
Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash
The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024. Winners and Losers of Free Trade This contrast, in part, … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor: Weekly Update – June 6
The S&P 500 closed at 6000.4 on Friday, marking a significant psychological level with a 1.5% weekly gain. The strong performance was primarily driven by a short-covering bid, which reflects some big players are way offside, in our opinion. The … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 30
Global markets ended the month of May on relatively firm footing, with equity indexes rebounding modestly, inflation easing slightly, and consumer confidence stabilizing. However, beneath this surface calm lies a deeper undercurrent of concern—a growing alarm over sovereign debt and … Continue reading
Fiscal Scorecard: How COVID Torched the Budget
When President Donald Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a relatively stable fiscal environment. The federal budget deficit stood at approximately $581 billion, or 3.05% of GDP—a level widely regarded as sustainable by historical standards. Ironically, that same … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 