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Tag Archives: Politics
Gagging Dr. Copper and Distorting the Economy
…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022 Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call: “If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at … Continue reading
CyberFatwa: Tehran’s Retaliation Will Be a Click Away
Recent intelligence from June 2025 confirms a sharp uptick in Iranian cyber activity directed at U.S. critical infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid. As Iran ramps up its offensive cyber operations, utilities and cybersecurity officials have observed increased phishing attempts, credential … Continue reading
Straight to $120: The TACO Trade Returns
In 30 minutes, crude oil futures will flicker to life, and this isn’t just another session. With tensions between Israel and Iran hitting kinetic levels, traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz like it’s the Nasdaq in March 2020. One … Continue reading
Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash
The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024. Winners and Losers of Free Trade This contrast, in part, … Continue reading
From Opium to Chips: The Long War Behind Trade Wars
This one’s a must-view, folks. Not just because it’s smart and informative (it is), but because if you want to understand where this global trade war is headed, you need to understand where we’ve been. We’ve been here before, same … Continue reading
Fiscal Scorecard: How COVID Torched the Budget
When President Donald Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a relatively stable fiscal environment. The federal budget deficit stood at approximately $581 billion, or 3.05% of GDP—a level widely regarded as sustainable by historical standards. Ironically, that same … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 23
Last week’s Global Risk Monitor (GRM) warned of potential instability in global tariff negotiations, and unfortunately, those concerns proved prescient. Markets stumbled under the weight of fiscal volatility, erratic policy pronouncements, and renewed trade threats—all driven by the chaotic and … Continue reading
HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?
HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 16
Financial markets continued to rebound this week, buoyed by temporary trade de-escalations and looser financial conditions. However, beneath the surface of this rally lies a landscape of historically elevated valuations and persistent uncertainty. Market participants should temper optimism, as the … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 25
Global markets staged an impressive rebound this week, fueled by growing optimism that trade tensions between the United States and China may soon ease and that some bilateral trade deals are imminent. Investors eagerly latched onto comments from U.S. Treasury … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 