Tag Archives: Sovereign Risk

Euro Trashed!

Dennis Gartman (click here for video) said today the Euro has “almost terminal problems”and eventually “breaks apart”  into a Northern Euro and Southern Euro.  The currency broke its 200-day moving average against the dollar and looks headed to a very … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: PIIGS Bond Maturities

This is a major factor contributing to the Eurozone stress that just won’t go away.  SpiegelOnline charts show the PIIGS must redeem bonds totaling over Euro45o BN in 2011, of which, Euro 128.3BN are Spanish Bonds and Euro264.6 BN Italian … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Run on German Safe Deposit Boxes? WTH?

The implosion of the Eurozone appears to be accelerating. But Germany?  Come on!  Yet Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes the crisis in the eurozone periphery is moving to the core as credit default swaps for German, French,and Dutch bonds have blown out … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

‘The Euro Was Equivalent of US’ Subprime Securities’

This quote is from today’s Spiegel Online International, which has an excellent summation of what the German newspapers are saying about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.   The leftist Die Tageszeitung writes: “Where earlier countries with small currencies like the Irish … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Ireland Bailout Equal to $8.8 trillion US Equivalent

The FT reports the Irish bailout package will total €80bn-€90bn, which is about 60 percent of the country’s $200 BN annual GDP.  Massive!   The FT writes, The bail-out is expected to total €80bn-€90bn and will include contributions from the UK … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Equities, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Merkel Blinks, Irish Bonds Rally

The panic in the European periphery eased a but as Irish bonds rallied sharply after finance ministers issued a statement that current debt would not be included in burden sharing in the event of a sovereign restructuring.    The FT writes, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Greatest Trade Ever?

Check out Bespoke’s great table of Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices.   We don’t trade CDS, but doesn’t Long China/Short Japan,  straight up,  seem like the greatest trade ever? Or just outright short at 53 bps?   Japan’s public funding requirement is almost … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

“All that liquidity ends up not where it is supposed to be…”

Great CNBC interview (click for video) with British historian, Niall Ferguson.  It’s worth the 5 minutes of your time.  We’re amazed how well Ferguson understands the global economy and articulates the risks better than many trained economists.   Money quotes: “There … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Breakup of the Euro isn’t unthinkable – Peer Steinbrueck

Peer Steinbrueck, who served as finance minister under Angela Merkel from 2005 to 2009, has published, Unterm Strich (“On Balance”), his insider view of the financial crisis. It looks to be a fascinating read.  Bloomberg has a great first look: … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

MS Poll: 53% Believe US Debt Crisis By 2012

An interesting chart from the Business Insider of the results of a Morgan Stanley survey of 150 clients at a recent investment conference.   Shockingly, more than 50% of the investors polled believe the US will experience a sovereign debt … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment