Monthly Archives: December 2010

Rollover Risk: Moody’s Warns on Spain

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

“Rollover risk” will be a major theme in 2011 and Moody’s is getting an early start.  Bloomberg writes, Spain had its Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Brazil Rising

Posted on December 12, 2010 by macromon

Great 60 Minutes piece on Brazil tonight.   Lula looks great!  But who wouldn’t if they were leaving office with a 70 percent approval rating.   Check it out.

Posted in BRICs, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Day of the Week Effect: Can “MF Monday” Shake Its Slump?

Posted on December 12, 2010 by macromon

Not that MF Monday!  Traders like to muse over the “Day of the Week Effect”, particularly, “Mutual Fund Monday”, where convention posits that since the crisis, the S&P5oo performs better on Mondays than other days.   The thesis is that mutual … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit?

Posted on December 11, 2010 by macromon

Interesting data showing who is funding the U.S. budget deficit and how the profile has changed since the financial crisis.  We excluded 2008 as the aggregate data was distorted due to the Federal Reserve’s $265 BN sale (or exchange?) of … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

U.S. Equities Gettin’ Jiggy…No Love for the Haters

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

The Christmas Ramp continues as stocks remain firmly bid even going into this weekend’s monetary event risk in China.   There’s a whiff of panic as under allocated investors watch the markets runaway and refuse to correct (see chart below). The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Equities, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

filliBuster Sanders now on Senate Floor

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

Bored?  Click here to watch CSPAN’s live view of Senator Bernie Sanders “ tax cut filibuster” on the Senate floor.   CSPAN  writes, He began his speech by saying, “I am simply here today to take as long as I … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Illustrated History of the U.S. Credit Collapse

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

We constructed these charts with data from today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds.  They are both stunning and frightening as they illustrate the cardiac arrest that took place in the credit markets.  The  collapse in credit issuance/borrowing … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments