Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Debt and the New World Order

Posted on March 21, 2012 by macromon

The IMF does a good job interviewing Phillip Coggan, the columnist for the Economist, on his new book,  Paper Promises: Debt, Money, and the New World Order.  Good stuff! DEBT AND REFORM Debt Can Reshape Current Economic, Political Order—Coggan IMF … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Kondratiev Wave: End to 30-year bond market rally

Posted on March 20, 2012 by macromon

Interesting stuff from this morning’s CNBC European Squawk, The updated reading of the work of 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev shows that interest rates have reached the bottom of a 60-year-long wave, and are bound to go up, Chris Watling … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Equities | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Ugly Chart Contest: Safe Haven Swan Diving

Posted on March 19, 2012 by macromon

There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear…. Everybody look what’s going down – For What It’s Worth – Buffalo Springfield,  circa 1967 The former safe havens – U.S. treasury bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen — have … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Economics, Gold, Japan | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

China’s Depressed Animal Spirits

Posted on March 19, 2012 by macromon

Here’s a report from Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride in Hong Kong.   We’re trying to diversify our China media sources in response to suggestions from our readers in Asia.   The caption to the video reads, China’s strong consumer base has kept … Continue reading →

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Game Change: Bakken Shale Production 1985-2010

Posted on March 18, 2012 by macromon

We have this sense that the global economic tectonic plates are shifting before our very eyes.  America, the land of cheap energy and the new efficient production frontier? Here’s Reuters last week, America’s steel industry, for decades a symbol of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Energy, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

China Development Forum 2012: Christine Lagarde

Posted on March 17, 2012 by macromon

From the International Monetary Fund website: Opening Ceremony, China Development Forum 2012 Guest Speech by Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Beijing, Sunday, March 18, 2012 As prepared for delivery Good morning. It is an absolute pleasure to be back in … Continue reading →

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China Real Estate: “Prices Will Fall By 50%”

Posted on March 17, 2012 by macromon

Sound familiar?  Keep this one on your radar. NTD Television writes, Chinese real estate has been seen as such a quick and lucrative investment that a special term, “chao fangzi” or “stir-frying houses,” was invented to describe property speculation. But … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Housing | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Is the Bond Market’s Arab Spring Upon Us?

Posted on March 14, 2012 by macromon

Ugly action in bonds over the past few days. In last month’s post,  Is the Fed ready for the bond market’s Arab Spring?, we suspected the Fed needed more ammo to continue their repression of long-term rates.   Yesterday Mr. Bernanke … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Euro Fracture: Cradle of Civilization Headed for Revolution?

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

Interesting interview with British MEP, Paul Nuttal.    He worries about political instability spreading in the Eurozone and raises the notion of a harder euro for the northern countries. We believe the best case, at the end of the day,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Leave a comment

What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

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