Category Archives: Bonds

Paradox of Zero Interest Rate Monetary Policy: Loose is Tight

Posted on October 6, 2010 by macromon

Let us take a moment to say we’re thankful for central bankers!  They have an extremely difficult job, make monumental decisions under great pressure and uncertainty, only to be constantly second guessed by a crowd of ignoramuses, including us! Someday … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Credit, Currency, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Fed, ECB throwing world into chaos – Stiglitz

Posted on October 5, 2010 by macromon

These are the headlines from an earlier Reuters report.   Joe Stiglitz is one smart dude (OSD) and was the World Bank’s chief economist during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 1998 Russian Debt Default.   He says the ultra-loose monetary policy … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Breakup of the Euro isn’t unthinkable – Peer Steinbrueck

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

Peer Steinbrueck, who served as finance minister under Angela Merkel from 2005 to 2009, has published, Unterm Strich (“On Balance”), his insider view of the financial crisis. It looks to be a fascinating read.  Bloomberg has a great first look: … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

MS Poll: 53% Believe US Debt Crisis By 2012

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

An interesting chart from the Business Insider of the results of a Morgan Stanley survey of 150 clients at a recent investment conference.   Shockingly, more than 50% of the investors polled believe the US will experience a sovereign debt … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

John Bull’s Tsunami of Dollars Flood the Copacabana

Posted on October 1, 2010 by macromon

We have written how “the tide of yield seeking capital flows will surge” as John Bull can stand many things, but he can’t stand two zero percent. One recipient of John Bull’s dollars (managed by PIMCO)  is the Brazilian bond … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Currency, Equities | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The “Catch-Up”Trade

Posted on September 30, 2010 by macromon

Interesting chart of today’s activity.  They sold the grains and bought crude, which has been a laggard.  The “catch-up” trade, where laggards outperform,  may be the theme of the markets for the next few weeks.

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Pension Funds Under Allocated to Equities – Fuel for Rally?

Posted on September 28, 2010 by macromon

Just a quick post of an interesting chart we constructed after a night of data crunching.  This is preliminary analysis as we still need to look at flows versus valuation effects, and the data should also be viewed with a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Equities | 3 Comments

The 10-year sets sail for 2 percent…

Posted on September 28, 2010 by macromon

The 10-year closed at 2.46 percent today, a 20-month low,  on the back of weak consumer confidence.  Bond buyers and traders hear the horn of QE2 and anticipate a  [Kentucky] FED take-out at higher prices. Stocks up,  commodities x/grains up,  … Continue reading →

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The Quantum Mechanics of the U.S. Bond Market

Posted on September 27, 2010 by macromon

The 10-year Treasury rate fell almost 10 bps to close at 2.52 percent,  just 4 bps off its August 24 recent low.   A close below 2.50 percent will clear the way for a move to challenge the December ’08 low … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | 27 Comments