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Category Archives: Interest Rates
Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different
Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading
China and Japan Continue To Reduce Treasury Holdings
The U.S. Treasury just released the August TIC (Treasury International Capital) data at the market close. The key takeaways: China and Japan, the U.S. government’s two largest foreign creditors, continue to reduce their Treasury holdings, both down $6 billion in … Continue reading
Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing
Summary Largely ignored by the markets, Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading
FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds Rate
8 Comments
Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield
Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least. Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and … Continue reading
Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bonds Market, Crash, Interest rate parity, Stock Market
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QOTD: Slouching Toward A Banana Republic
Could it be the markets are instead revolting against President Trump’s fiscal profligacy, and beginning to price in a potential debt crisis/major interest rate spike? Just askin’. “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I … Continue reading
Posted in Equities, Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Monetary Policy, President Trump
3 Comments
QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher
Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading
Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged 10-year T-Note yields, SOMA, Treasury Auctions
3 Comments
Alea Iacta Est!
As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.” Historians translate this as “the die … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Asset Markets, Interest rates, Julius Caesar, yields
19 Comments
German 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent
Really efficient markets, no? The Germans ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans. Only going to add to the country’s already rising political tensions. As Holger notes, … Continue reading
The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0
Here it is, folks, the final product. It is a beast. One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read. … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 