Category Archives: Politics

Crunch time in DC, Beijing and Athens – Reuters

Posted on November 5, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

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Picture of the Day: ‘Cause Baby, You’re a Firework

Posted on November 3, 2012 by macromon

Thank goodness it will be over Tuesday night.  Or will it? (click here if photo and video are not observable)

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What to Expect When You’re Electing

Posted on October 31, 2012 by macromon

Interesting data on S&P500 returns during the last two months of a presidential election year. We looked at the last fifteen presidential elections beginning with the 1952 election of President Eisenhower.   With the exception of the swan elections of 2008, … Continue reading →

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How tight is the U.S. presidential election?

Posted on October 23, 2012 by macromon

The race is suddenly so tight in the nine battleground states that each side is looking at a single Congressional district in Maine whose one electoral vote, in the event of an exceedingly tight outcome, could decide whether Mr. Romney … Continue reading →

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Arbitraging the Intrade Volatility

Posted on October 23, 2012 by macromon

U.S. stocks are not the only market experiencing volatility these days.  Take a look at the presidential contract over at Intrade. We logged on tonight and found the President’s probability of winning the election had fallen to almost 51 percent … Continue reading →

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The Political Black Swan

Posted on October 19, 2012 by macromon

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.  Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first … Continue reading →

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Romney Takes Electoral College Lead At Real Clear

Posted on October 18, 2012 by macromon

This is the first time we’ve seen Romney take the lead in the electoral college at RealClearPolitics.  The governor has also opened up a 7 point lead in the national Gallup daily tracking poll among likely voters and seems to … Continue reading →

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Romney Rally?

Posted on October 16, 2012 by macromon

After returning to our desks last week, we posted, …been out (golf trip) and totally unplugged for the past few days and come back to yesterday’s major reversal in Apple (see chart)  and a big flip in the polls in … Continue reading →

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Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets

Posted on October 13, 2012 by macromon

Great piece by PBS NewsHour  on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS.   Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating. BTW,  Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS  has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade.  The VEEP debate … Continue reading →

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Weekend At the Movies: Lincoln

Posted on September 28, 2012 by macromon

Wow!  This looks good. Steven Spielberg directs Daniel Day-Lewis as President Abraham Lincoln and Sally Field as Mary Todd.   To be released in November. (click here if video is not observable)

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