Tag Archives: bonds

Did the Russell 2000 predict the better than expected ADP?

Posted on January 5, 2011 by macromon

Did you notice the better than expected ADP employment report this morning.  It was the largest monthly jump ever in this report, with most of the jobs created in small and medium sized businesses? Recall we wrote on January 3rd … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Currency, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Global Interest Rate Spike: Young Lady or Old Hag?

Posted on December 8, 2010 by macromon

The epic interest rate spike and U.S. bond sell-off during the past few trading days is generating a fierce market debate.  The bears see it as the beginning of a new phase of the crisis, where sovereign debt woes spread … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Muni Market Rebounds, California Prices RANs

Posted on November 18, 2010 by macromon

After widening 70 bps, long-term California munis rebounded today, tightening as much as 6-10 bps.  California priced $10 BN of Revenue Anticaption Notes (RANs)  paying higher than their initial target price.  Notes from the $2.25 billion Series A-1 mature in … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Muni Market | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

US Budget Deficit 9th Largest Economy in the World

Posted on October 26, 2010 by macromon

After falling to a low of 2.33 percent on October 8th, the 10-day Treasury has sold-off closing today at a yield of 2.64 percent.  The recent high is around 2.83 percent, which we will be watching closely. To get a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rising Tide (of liquidity) Lifts All Boats

Posted on October 12, 2010 by macromon

Great chart from Active Trader of the S&P5oo correlation with other markets.  Have you noticed recently that all markets are moving together?  U.S. Treasuries, domestic and foreign stocks, Greek Bonds, EM Debt, commodities, and foreign currencies all in lockstep? This … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

MS Poll: 53% Believe US Debt Crisis By 2012

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

An interesting chart from the Business Insider of the results of a Morgan Stanley survey of 150 clients at a recent investment conference.   Shockingly, more than 50% of the investors polled believe the US will experience a sovereign debt … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

John Bull’s Tsunami of Dollars Flood the Copacabana

Posted on October 1, 2010 by macromon

We have written how “the tide of yield seeking capital flows will surge” as John Bull can stand many things, but he can’t stand two zero percent. One recipient of John Bull’s dollars (managed by PIMCO)  is the Brazilian bond … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Currency, Equities | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The “Catch-Up”Trade

Posted on September 30, 2010 by macromon

Interesting chart of today’s activity.  They sold the grains and bought crude, which has been a laggard.  The “catch-up” trade, where laggards outperform,  may be the theme of the markets for the next few weeks.

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

The 10-year sets sail for 2 percent…

Posted on September 28, 2010 by macromon

The 10-year closed at 2.46 percent today, a 20-month low,  on the back of weak consumer confidence.  Bond buyers and traders hear the horn of QE2 and anticipate a  [Kentucky] FED take-out at higher prices. Stocks up,  commodities x/grains up,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , | Leave a comment