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Tag Archives: Economy
Global Risk Montior: Week in Review – June 13
This week presented a paradox that seasoned portfolio and hedge fund managers will recognize immediately: risk is rising, but price action remains oddly composed. With geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East, oil surging, and inflation data surprising to the … Continue reading
Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash
The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024. Winners and Losers of Free Trade This contrast, in part, … Continue reading
From Opium to Chips: The Long War Behind Trade Wars
This one’s a must-view, folks. Not just because it’s smart and informative (it is), but because if you want to understand where this global trade war is headed, you need to understand where we’ve been. We’ve been here before, same … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor: Weekly Update – June 6
The S&P 500 closed at 6000.4 on Friday, marking a significant psychological level with a 1.5% weekly gain. The strong performance was primarily driven by a short-covering bid, which reflects some big players are way offside, in our opinion. The … Continue reading
RIP GOAT of Macro
Stanley Fischer’s impact on our journey as economists is both profound and personal. From the moment we encountered his co-authored textbook Macroeconomics—a work that distilled the complexity of the dismal science into practical, accessible insight—Fischer became a silent guide along … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 30
Global markets ended the month of May on relatively firm footing, with equity indexes rebounding modestly, inflation easing slightly, and consumer confidence stabilizing. However, beneath this surface calm lies a deeper undercurrent of concern—a growing alarm over sovereign debt and … Continue reading
Fiscal Scorecard: How COVID Torched the Budget
When President Donald Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a relatively stable fiscal environment. The federal budget deficit stood at approximately $581 billion, or 3.05% of GDP—a level widely regarded as sustainable by historical standards. Ironically, that same … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 23
Last week’s Global Risk Monitor (GRM) warned of potential instability in global tariff negotiations, and unfortunately, those concerns proved prescient. Markets stumbled under the weight of fiscal volatility, erratic policy pronouncements, and renewed trade threats—all driven by the chaotic and … Continue reading
HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?
HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 16
Financial markets continued to rebound this week, buoyed by temporary trade de-escalations and looser financial conditions. However, beneath the surface of this rally lies a landscape of historically elevated valuations and persistent uncertainty. Market participants should temper optimism, as the … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 