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Tag Archives: Economy
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 25
Global markets staged an impressive rebound this week, fueled by growing optimism that trade tensions between the United States and China may soon ease and that some bilateral trade deals are imminent. Investors eagerly latched onto comments from U.S. Treasury … Continue reading
The Anatomy of a Bond and Currency Crisis
It was the autumn of 1996 when I arrived in Sofia, Bulgaria. I was working for a major Wall Street investment bank and had a clear and urgent mission to assess the sustainability of Bulgaria’s sovereign debt. The atmosphere in … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 18
Happy Easter, folks! The Trump administration’s tariff strategy continues to function less as a deliberate trade policy and more as a volatile, reactionary experiment. Markets are grappling with a growing realization: there is no unified objective anchoring current U.S. trade … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 11
The United States’ current tariff regime reveals not a strategic plan but an erratic response to market volatility, suggesting a governing philosophy resembling reactive day trading more closely than structured economic policymaking. As the week’s developments show, the absence of … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor 2.0: Week In Review – April 4
Our earlier GRM post mistakenly included data tables from the week of March 28th. Here are the up-to-date April 4th tables. The U.S. Administration’s tariff policy represents a critical policy error that has upended financial markets and raised the specter … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 28
Key Observations: New Tariff Impact: Trump announced a sweeping 25% tariff on all non-U.S.-made automobiles, sharply impacting global equity markets and especially hurting export-reliant sectors like autos in Europe and Japan. S&P 500 Breaks Technical Support: The S&P 500 has … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 21
Key Observations: U.S. stock indexes broke multi-week losing streaks but remain in correction territory. Value sectors like Utilities and Energy outperformed as investors rotated out of large-cap tech amid rising tariff uncertainty and mixed economic data. The Federal Reserve held … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – March 14
Key Insights U.S. stock markets saw their fourth consecutive weekly decline, driven by recession fears and trade policy uncertainty. The Fed will keep rates unchanged, but inflation expectations have risen, raising concerns about stagflation. Eurozone faces economic headwinds, with ECB … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 7
Key Facts and Observations: Major U.S. indices declined significantly due to tariff uncertainties. The euro currency spiked after Germany announced a massive fiscal spending package. Germany’s new budgetary strategy caused historic bond yield increases. ECB lowered rates amid slowing inflation … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – February 28
The past week saw heightened market volatility, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining due to fading AI momentum and a growth scare, while the Dow Jones outperformed. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model slashed Q1 GDP growth projections to -1.5%, … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 