Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

No Joy In Shortsville As Noise Traders Find No Sellers

Posted on March 4, 2013 by macromon

In 1990 Brad De Long, Andrei Scheifer, Larry Summers, and Robert Waldmann published, Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets, in the Journal of Political Economy.   The piece made the distinction between short-term traders with long-term investors and concluded that their … Continue reading →

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The Fed on Food Stamps

Posted on December 13, 2012 by macromon

Wow!   The food stamp program is now equivalent to 14 percent of all U.S. grocery store sales. Though the Fed indirectly finances the food stamp program with its purchase of treasury securities — $45 billion per month starting in January … Continue reading →

Posted in Banking, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Chart of the Day: Operation Twisted Yield Curve

Posted on December 12, 2012 by macromon

Interesting chart from Bloomberg on how the Fed’s treasury holdings have changed under operation twist, or more formally, the Maturity Extension Program and Reinvestment Policy. After the end of the month no more selling of the short end to buy … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Chart of the Day, Economics, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Cue FED

Posted on December 11, 2012 by macromon

Here’s some interesting data the Fed is surely looking at. The monetary base has been flat lining since the end of QE2 —  i.e., the balance sheet growth of the Federal Reserve has not been above long-term growth.  May explain … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Hugh Hendry and David Einhorn at the Buttonwood Gathering

Posted on October 26, 2012 by macromon

Spend some time over the weekend listening to Hugh Hendry and David Einhorn, who were participating in the Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering this week. Nice to hear from some non-cheerleaders.   Smart and provocative. Hendry is very bearish on the creditor nations … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Whales | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

James Grant on Markets, Fed Policy, Gold Standard

Posted on August 29, 2012 by macromon

Bloomberg’s Tom Keene interviews Jim Grant.  Always worth a listen, especially with the gold standard back into the news.  He also takes a swipe at the Swiss National Banks.  Good stuff. We need a central bank that has the humility … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Parabolic Moves and Gold

Posted on July 22, 2012 by macromon

The Fed finds itself extremely unlucky once again as it talks up quantitative easing while food prices, mainly wheat and corn,  are making a parabolic and historic move as crops suffer from extreme drought.   You can’t prove causation with … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Gold, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Gold In Full Blown QE Mode

Posted on June 6, 2012 by macromon

Gold is a weird cat with multiple personalities and more than nine lives.  The yellow metal is up almost $100 since last Friday’s weak U.S. employment report. At any given time period  gold will assume any one of its multiple … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Facebook as the “Ultimate Black Swan”

Posted on May 20, 2012 by macromon

We have half joked about this on Friday after a ton of the Facebook traded around its IPO price of $38 and no doubt many of the shares came back to the Street.   Oliver Stone couldn’t write a better script. … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Is the Fed ready for the bond market’s Arab Spring?

Posted on February 16, 2012 by macromon

We’ve updated our database of the Federal Reserve’s ownership of the U.S. Treasury coupon curve.  The resulting chart highlights a couple of interesting issues about its structure and holdings of outstanding notes and bonds. First, though nothing new, it shows … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments