Tag Archives: S&P500

Trannies and Russell Break 50-day SMA

Posted on April 3, 2013 by macromon

The recent weakness in the Transports and the Russell were confirmed by today’s sell-off in the S&P500.  Let’s see if they can reclaim 50-day and if all the buyers waiting for the sell-off step in here.  Note also the weakness … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Staples Outperformance Signalling a Correction?

Posted on March 27, 2013 by macromon

Let’s revisit the S&P500 (SPY)  and Consumer Disretionary: Staples ratio (XLY/XLP). Last month we flagged the outperformance of consumer staple stocks relative to consumer discretionary was signaling the pullback albeit a small one — just over 3 percent around the … Continue reading →

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Cyprus Deal Unleashes Bidzilla

Posted on March 24, 2013 by macromon

The BIDzilla for U.S. equities is relentless.  Though Europe is far from out of the woods (see last week’s PMIs) and it’s still unclear when the banks in Cyprus will reopen tonight’s bailout removes the uncertainty of a Cyprus eurozone … Continue reading →

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S&P500 Testing Key Support

Posted on March 21, 2013 by macromon

Hard to to discern the cause of the increase in chop in U.S. equities.  Cyprus?  Overbought? Earnings worry?  Strong dollar’s impact on earnings (see Oracle’s release)? Here’s what we said on March 4th: No doubt the stronger dollar will be … Continue reading →

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No Joy In Shortsville As Noise Traders Find No Sellers

Posted on March 4, 2013 by macromon

In 1990 Brad De Long, Andrei Scheifer, Larry Summers, and Robert Waldmann published, Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets, in the Journal of Political Economy.   The piece made the distinction between short-term traders with long-term investors and concluded that their … Continue reading →

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That Was Ugly

Posted on February 28, 2013 by macromon

Ugly close. The Dow was within 15 points of its all-time when the sellers ambushed the market at 2:30 New York and beat it like a drum into the close.   The VIX couldn’t pierce the 14 level and spiked 8 … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

The Bernanke Stock Squeeze

Posted on February 27, 2013 by macromon

So Bernanke says 2016 is when he thinks unemployment moves to the monetary policy target of 6.5 percent.   That’s a long time before the party in U.S. stocks will end.    Nutcracker short squeeze. The shakeout over the past … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

VIX Spikes and the S&P500

Posted on February 25, 2013 by macromon

Epic 34% spike in the VIX today. The 1oth largest daily percent increase since 1990 and biggest since August 2011, which, at the time was in the midst of a nasty correction/mini bear market.   The S&P500 is only off … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Consumer Discretionary:Staples Ratio Confirms Correction

Posted on February 21, 2013 by macromon

Here are some more data confirming a stock market correction. The consumer staples ETF (XLP) began to outperform the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) on January 25th while the S&P500 continued to move higher.   As the ratio (red time series) … Continue reading →

Posted in Sector ETF Peformance | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Correction Time? Now or Never…

Posted on February 20, 2013 by macromon

The S&P500 had its worst daily decline for the year.  The VIX spiked over 19 percent, its biggest 1-day increase in 2013.  The dollar index closed at its highest level since November 16th,  which was the day the S&P500 bottomed … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments