Tag Archives: S&P500

Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle and Decennial Chart Analogs

Posted on January 24, 2011 by macromon

Today we look at how the S&P500 is tracking the two chart analogs, which we wrote about at the end of last year.   We don’t “bet the ranch” on these, but we do know many smart people look at … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

The Divergence to Keep on Your Radar

Posted on January 21, 2011 by macromon

Just looking at the the Dow, which was up 0.72 percent,  it wasn’t a bad week.   Look again! Mr. Market inflicted some heavy pain this shortened trading week and we’re feeling some of it.  We’ll discuss  in more detail … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

S&P500 Breaks Hitting Streak, Jimmy Rollins Safe…

Posted on January 19, 2011 by macromon

The S&P500 broke its streak of 37 consecutive days without a one percent correction, just barely, however, falling 1.01 percent.  Jimmy Rollins can sleep easier tonight.  The NASDAQ was down 1.46 percent. So what’s next?  If history is indicative of … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Commodities, Equities | Tagged | 1 Comment

S&P500 and Years That End In ‘1

Posted on January 9, 2011 by macromon

“Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street.” — Edwin Lefèvre,    Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator Years That End ‘1 Exhibit Strong Seasonality The above was cited in an article in this month’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The S&P500 in 2011: What’s past is prologue?

Posted on December 31, 2010 by macromon

Let’s be honest and a little humble as we venture into the “great wide open” of 2011. Nobody really has a clue what path the markets will take.  Given what we’ve all been through and the uncertainty and plethora of … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments

S&P500 Rarity – Up 14 of 16 Days

Posted on December 23, 2010 by macromon

The S&P500 has traded up 14 of the past 16 days, which has happened only seven times in the past twenty-five years.  Dismissing the streaks,  it has only happened twice.   Bespoke, who does great work and to whom we … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

End of December Global Stock Returns

Posted on December 20, 2010 by macromon

The following table shows the 2000-09 average return for each day of the last seven days of the year for the major global averages.  The number 1, for example,  is the last trading day of the year. On average, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hang Seng Index – Indicator Species for Global Risk?

Posted on December 16, 2010 by macromon

We like to look at Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index as the “indicator species” for global risk appetite.   Over our 25 years of trading, we have noticed that the Hang Seng tends to lead most risk markets and is … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, China, Equities | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Day of the Week Effect: Can “MF Monday” Shake Its Slump?

Posted on December 12, 2010 by macromon

Not that MF Monday!  Traders like to muse over the “Day of the Week Effect”, particularly, “Mutual Fund Monday”, where convention posits that since the crisis, the S&P5oo performs better on Mondays than other days.   The thesis is that mutual … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment