Monthly Archives: March 2012

China HSBC Flash PMI At 4-Month Low

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is showing further contraction. Could worries over China slowing, coupled with renewed jitters in Europe, be the catalyst for the long awaited correction in global equities?  That’s how we’re positioned, but recognize it’s a … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Economics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Quote of the Day: Beautiful Credit!

‘I wasn’t worth a cent two years ago, and now I owe two millions of dollars.’ –  Mark Twain,  The Gilded Age

Posted in Quote of the Day | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Charlie Rose: China’s Macro Challenges

Excellent group discussion on doing business in China and the macro challenges facing the country.  The panel has experience and great perspective, especially Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group,  who has an interesting view on China’s transition to a domestic … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Debt and the New World Order

The IMF does a good job interviewing Phillip Coggan, the columnist for the Economist, on his new book,  Paper Promises: Debt, Money, and the New World Order.  Good stuff! DEBT AND REFORM Debt Can Reshape Current Economic, Political Order—Coggan IMF … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Charlie Rose: Arminio Fraga In the Greenroom

Great short piece – 3:37 minutes — with our friend and former colleague, Arminio Fraga.   He discusses his first job; gives career advice; his career low and high points;  current work;  favorite books; and the greatest challenge facing Brazil.    … Continue reading

Posted in BRICs, Interviews, Whales | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

HBR: The Real Leadership Lessons of Steve Jobs

Walter Isaacson follows up his biography of Steve Jobs with an “insanely great” piece in the April HBR.   He drills down on the factors that helped to catapult the legendary entrepreneur into an elite league of American business leaders, including … Continue reading

Posted in Apple, Technology, Whales | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Kondratiev Wave: End to 30-year bond market rally

Interesting stuff from this morning’s CNBC European Squawk, The updated reading of the work of 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev shows that interest rates have reached the bottom of a 60-year-long wave, and are bound to go up, Chris Watling … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Equities | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Ugly Chart Contest: Safe Haven Swan Diving

There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear…. Everybody look what’s going down – For What It’s Worth – Buffalo Springfield,  circa 1967 The former safe havens – U.S. treasury bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen — have … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Economics, Gold, Japan | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

What’s Driving U.S. Inflation?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment.  These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase. (click here is charts and table are not observable)

Posted in Economics, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

China’s Depressed Animal Spirits

Here’s a report from Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride in Hong Kong.   We’re trying to diversify our China media sources in response to suggestions from our readers in Asia.   The caption to the video reads, China’s strong consumer base has kept … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment