Category Archives: Bonds

State and Local Governments, Man Your Battle Stations!

Take a look at the new cover of the Economist. We have been all over the coming “battle royal” between the state and local governments and their public sector unions, but not as much as Mike Shedlock over at the … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market

The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time.   Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1)  in hyperinflation; 2)  in … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

POMO: Fed Buys $1.5 BN of 17 to 30-year Bonds

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Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….

Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010.  Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

2011 Radar: Japan Sovereign Risk

It’s late but want to start with a quick post on what we see as potential off-radar risks that could potentially derail the equity rally.   Let’s focus tonight on Japan, which is on the mind of very few traders and … Continue reading

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Are we too short Bernanke?

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Chart of the Day: Bond ETF Performance

Interesting chart showing performance of Bond ETFs.   All have slid into year-end, converging around a 3-5 percent annual return, setting up nicely for a “jump ship” trade into equities.   Muni bonds have been a relative disaster. (LQD)    Liquid Investment … Continue reading

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The Great Monetary Policy Swan Dive

Great chart from the OECD illustrating the dramatic actions taken by the world’s major central banks during the financial crisis.   The massive collapse in short-term interest rates has reduced income of savers and the splash of the heavyweight central banks … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

George Will on Coming War Over Public Pensions

Be sure to catch George Will’s Washington Post piece on the coming battle in the new Congress over state and local public pensions.   In early December, we posted the report by James Pethokoukis of a secret Republican plan to push … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

A spectre is haunting Europe

This is what’s  going to blow up the Europe.   All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem.   Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs,  nails … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment