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Category Archives: Bonds
State and Local Governments, Man Your Battle Stations!
Take a look at the new cover of the Economist. We have been all over the coming “battle royal” between the state and local governments and their public sector unions, but not as much as Mike Shedlock over at the … Continue reading
It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market
The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time. Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1) in hyperinflation; 2) in … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged CDS, Euro, European Debt Crisis
1 Comment
POMO: Fed Buys $1.5 BN of 17 to 30-year Bonds
Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy
Tagged bonds, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, POMO
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Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….
Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010. Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics
Tagged Governor Brown, Governor Christie, Nonfarm employment, Russell 2000
2 Comments
2011 Radar: Japan Sovereign Risk
It’s late but want to start with a quick post on what we see as potential off-radar risks that could potentially derail the equity rally. Let’s focus tonight on Japan, which is on the mind of very few traders and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Japan, Sovereign Debt
Tagged Equities, Japan Sovereign Risk, Yen
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Are we too short Bernanke?
Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders. Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a) … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bernanke, Economy, Outlook, Stock Market
1 Comment
Chart of the Day: Bond ETF Performance
Interesting chart showing performance of Bond ETFs. All have slid into year-end, converging around a 3-5 percent annual return, setting up nicely for a “jump ship” trade into equities. Muni bonds have been a relative disaster. (LQD) Liquid Investment … Continue reading
The Great Monetary Policy Swan Dive
Great chart from the OECD illustrating the dramatic actions taken by the world’s major central banks during the financial crisis. The massive collapse in short-term interest rates has reduced income of savers and the splash of the heavyweight central banks … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Monetary Policy, Policy
Tagged Emerging Markets, Gold, Interest rates, Monetary Pollicy, Zero Interest Rate Policy
1 Comment
George Will on Coming War Over Public Pensions
Be sure to catch George Will’s Washington Post piece on the coming battle in the new Congress over state and local public pensions. In early December, we posted the report by James Pethokoukis of a secret Republican plan to push … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Policy, Politics
Tagged Muni Bonds, Muni Market, State and Local Pensions
1 Comment
A spectre is haunting Europe
This is what’s going to blow up the Europe. All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem. Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs, nails … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video
Tagged Euro, Ireland, PIIGS, Political Risk, Sovereign Debt Crisis, The Corrs
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