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Category Archives: Equities
China Rate Hike: Four Markets to Watch
Fearsome Foursome We’re watching the reaction in four markets to gauge how the Christmas gift from the Kings of the East will affect global risk appetite. The People’s Bank of China increased both the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy
Tagged Australia, Bovespa, China, China Interest Rate Hike, Copper, Hang seng, Kospi, Monetary Policy, Nikkei, Oil, Shanghai
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THICK AS A BRIC – U.S. Stocks Outperform Star E.M.s
To the surprise of many, the U.S. stock indices are set to outperform those of the beloved BRICs in 2010. As of December 23rd, China and Brazil are down for the year with the Russian RTS the top performer, up … Continue reading
Posted in BRICs, Charts, China, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized
Tagged BRICs, China, Currencies, Equities, U.S. Stocks
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S&P500 Rarity – Up 14 of 16 Days
The S&P500 has traded up 14 of the past 16 days, which has happened only seven times in the past twenty-five years. Dismissing the streaks, it has only happened twice. Bespoke, who does great work and to whom we … Continue reading
Dead Wood No Longer
Take a look at lumber prices. In the days of traditional monetary policy in a normal economy, the Fed would lower interest rates and the construction sector would lead the economy out of recession. Lumber prices were a leading indicator. … Continue reading
Hang Seng Bounces, Sets Up Santa Claus Rally
Nice rebound in the Hang Seng, which was threatening to break the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. As one of our indicator species for global risk, the Hang Seng recovery paves the way for a Santa Claus rally … Continue reading
End of December Global Stock Returns
The following table shows the 2000-09 average return for each day of the last seven days of the year for the major global averages. The number 1, for example, is the last trading day of the year. On average, the … Continue reading
Posted in Equities
Tagged Bovespa, Hang seng, Kospi, NASDAQ, S&P500, Santa Claus Rally, Shanghai, Stocks, Year-end rally
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Apple’s Seasonal Trading Pattern
Lot’s of chatter how poorly Apple is trading. We’ve looked at the past six years of December trading and this year’s action is no different from the ghosts of Christmas past. After popping on the October earnings announcement, the stock … Continue reading
iPad2 expects monthly sales of 6M vs current 4M per quarter
Taiwan’s Digitimes writes, Apple has reportedly added two additional touch panel makers, Chimei Innolux and Cando, to its touch panel supplier list for iPad 2 in addition to current suppliers Wintek, Sintek Photronics and TPK Touch Solutions due to expanding … Continue reading
Hang Seng Index – Indicator Species for Global Risk?
We like to look at Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index as the “indicator species” for global risk appetite. Over our 25 years of trading, we have noticed that the Hang Seng tends to lead most risk markets and is … Continue reading
Posted in Charts, China, Equities
Tagged China, Equities, Hang seng, Indicator Species, S&P500
21 Comments
10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days
The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt
Tagged Budget Deficit, Interest rate spike, Interest rates, S&P500
4 Comments
Global Macro Monitor 