Category Archives: Equities

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Posted on February 24, 2020 by macromon

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Stonks Finally Mugged By A Dose Of Reality

Posted on February 24, 2020 by macromon

After watching this incredible bubble go up every-freaking-day and the speculative fever feed on itself, the market finally got its reality check today. Tied For Second Largest Point Drop (rounding up) Today’s flop marks only the third time in history … Continue reading →

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Why We’re Big Fans Of Johnny “Cash”

Posted on February 20, 2020 by macromon

Of course, if Larry M.’s Lehman-like drawdown scenario is realized, haven flows and shorts will pile into long-notes and bonds as a proxy short but we have no interest in trading fixed-income securities with a 100 bps negative real yield. … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Two Charts Keeping Us On The Beach

Posted on February 17, 2020 by macromon

I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain.  I’ve seen manias the public thought would never end. Until they do. This ain’t our first rodeo.  We have seen these types of asset bubbles many times during our career, especially when you … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Why The Millennials Feel The Bern

Posted on February 13, 2020 by macromon

The Global Macro Monitor has been writing about the Clash of Generations for years, and way before the headlines and data that are now starting to show up in the MSM.   See here. The fight taking place between the moderates … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Stocks Get Vertical & Vertigo

Posted on January 15, 2020 by macromon

This is some chart.  Even if you assume a structural shift in valuations began when the Fed started backstopping markets after the 1987 crash, that puts the average valuation of the Wilshire Market Cap to GDP at 92.58 percent.   That’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Stock Market Returns And Presidents – Beware Of Averaging

Posted on January 5, 2020 by macromon

We have warned about looking at averages (see here), especially with such skewed distributions and how a couple outliers can greatly distort this most common statistical metric. Real Life Macro Economy Example:  2019 Q1:  Average U.S. Household Wealth =  $803.3K … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Keeping Stock Market Returns In Perspective

Posted on December 20, 2019 by macromon

We just want to pass on some data to keep this year’s stock rally in perspective.  We are seeing a lot super giddy behavior out there as the S&P500 makes a new all-time high but…wait for it…at record high valuations … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

Buy, Sell, Or Hold?

Posted on December 18, 2019 by macromon

Wow, Mr. Market at the 150-yard line again. Only the second time in history and everyone and their mother are all lathered up. The Week Before Christmas ‘Twas the week before Christmas,  when all through the House, the Dems were … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Why The Stock Bull Is A Big Meh For Most Americans

Posted on December 5, 2019 by macromon

Interesting piece by the FT today that only one-third of Americans feel the benefits of the great bull market.   Only 40 percent of the population realizes stocks are up for the year.  These are tough numbers for a so-called “populist” … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Equities, Quotes, Uncategorized | Tagged | 31 Comments