Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

Is the U.S. Becoming Japan?

Posted on September 12, 2011 by macromon

As Treasury bond yields tumble to record lows we’re hearing lots of talk the U.S. is following the economic trajectory of Japan.  Not so fast!   Take a look at the following chart. After 990 days trading days from peaking, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Global Stock Performance, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

German Finance Minister Prepares for Possible Greek Bankruptcy – Spiegel

Posted on September 11, 2011 by macromon

These are the headlines at Spiegel Online, which should hit the markets like a ton of bricks offers on Monday.   Looks like Spiegel  posted the teaser to the full story to be released on Monday.    Not a great way … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

This Time is Different

Posted on September 9, 2011 by macromon

Those dreaded words you never want to hear as an investor.  But check out the Fortune Magazine graphic of this recession relative to others since the WWII.   Yes it’s a balance sheet problem and the economy needs more time to … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Demographics, Economics, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

Quote of the Day: Amen!

Posted on September 1, 2011 by macromon

“Just consider what levels of debt we are passing on to future generations.  This isn’t responsible, politically, morally or ethically.” – Juergen Stark, ECB

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Spiegel Unloads on Hedge Funds and the Markets

Posted on August 23, 2011 by macromon

Nasty article in Der Spiegel, Out of Control: The Destructive Power of the Financial Markets, which helps explain what’s behind the financial transactions tax that was recently introduced by Angela Merkel  and Nicolas Sarkozy.  The article opens, The enemy looks … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, General Interest, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Posted on July 26, 2011 by macromon

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Plan B: President Clinton’s 1995 Mexico Bailout

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

It’s hard to fathom that the U.S. will default on its debt, but in the event Congress can’t come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, we have little doubt President Obama will circumvent Congress and invoke Section 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The Clash of Generations

Posted on July 18, 2011 by macromon

Thomas Friedman is “connecting the dots” in his New York Times column piece over the weekend, The Clash of Generations.    The Global Macro Monitor posted a similar piece, Connecting the Dots: The Coming War Between Generations,  back in March. During … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Demographics, Egypt, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Nowhere to Hide…

Posted on July 16, 2011 by macromon

Larry Summers understands the risks the game Congress is playing with on lifting the debt ceiling.   Bloomberg writes, Summers said a potential default makes him worry about “runs on banks, runs on money market funds,” exchanges facing “the prospect … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Bank Exposure to Domestic Sovereigns

Posted on July 11, 2011 by macromon

Here at the Global Macro Monitor we perceive a rapidly changing financial landscape.  The concept of risk-free is being redefined as we write and analysts are now forced to look at the systemic risk caused by a banking system’s exposure … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments