Category Archives: Geopolitical

Quote of the Day: “Although insolvent, Ireland is still liquid…”

Posted on November 8, 2010 by macromon

Morgan Kelly writes in today’s Irish Times, As a taxpayer, what does a bailout bill of €70 billion mean? It means that every cent of income tax that you pay for the next two to three years will go to … Continue reading →

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Beijing, China 2030 AD

Posted on November 4, 2010 by macromon

What would Krugman think?  

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Sovereign Debt: Not So Risk-Free

Posted on November 1, 2010 by macromon

Joseph Cotterill over at FT Aphaville has a great post on how some European corporate bonds are trading through their sovereigns.   Not surprising it taking place in countries without access to a printing press to monetize deficit spending, Markit pointed … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Robert Prechter’s 100 Predictions – 7 years later

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

Here are 100 predictions that Elliot Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter, made in October 2003.  As my econ professor once said, “if you’re going to forecast, forecast a lot and forecast often.” No mention of the rise of Apple or the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk, Whales | Tagged , | 10 Comments

China to Resume Shipping Rare Earth Minerals – NY Times

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

The NY Times is reporting China has ended its Rare Earth export embargo just shortly after Secretary of State Clinton announced she would question the policy on her upcoming visit.  Interesting, China never admitted to export restrictions. As expected the … Continue reading →

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France’s half-century spending spree is coming to an end

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

Run don’t walk to James Traub’s Foreign Policy’s piece, The Spectacle of the Society.  Sarkozy’s approval ratings are at 30 percent as he battles rioters.   There is a lot here, even for Americans: The drama of rewriting the postwar social … Continue reading →

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Rare Earth Day 3.0

Posted on October 27, 2010 by macromon

The Rare Earths continue to rock today in a down market as the story unfolds.  Germany announced yesterday the rare earth supply shortage is starting to hit their industrial base.  The Chinese canceled a three-way high level meeting with Japan … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Commodities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

US Budget Deficit 9th Largest Economy in the World

Posted on October 26, 2010 by macromon

After falling to a low of 2.33 percent on October 8th, the 10-day Treasury has sold-off closing today at a yield of 2.64 percent.  The recent high is around 2.83 percent, which we will be watching closely. To get a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rare Earth Stocks Up Big on China Restrictions

Posted on October 19, 2010 by macromon

China announced further limits on its Rare Earth exports today.  The country controls 97 percent of the world’s supply, which are critical for hi-tech products, including smart phones, hybrid and electric vehicles,  and cruise missiles.   Hard to read if … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical, Politics, Rare Earth Elements, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Fed creating “grave distortions” – Brazil Central Bank

Posted on October 18, 2010 by macromon

Brazil is considering additional measures to keep the Real from appreciating  any further.  We like the Economist’s Big Mac Index, which is based on the concept of purchasing-power parity, to get a sense of the over/undervaluation of a currency.  The … Continue reading →

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