Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

“All that liquidity ends up not where it is supposed to be…”

Posted on October 13, 2010 by macromon

Great CNBC interview (click for video) with British historian, Niall Ferguson.  It’s worth the 5 minutes of your time.  We’re amazed how well Ferguson understands the global economy and articulates the risks better than many trained economists.   Money quotes: “There … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Rising Tide (of liquidity) Lifts All Boats

Posted on October 12, 2010 by macromon

Great chart from Active Trader of the S&P5oo correlation with other markets.  Have you noticed recently that all markets are moving together?  U.S. Treasuries, domestic and foreign stocks, Greek Bonds, EM Debt, commodities, and foreign currencies all in lockstep? This … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Ricardian Equivalence vs America’s Keynesianism

Posted on October 11, 2010 by macromon

We thought this to be the most interesting chart of the recently released World Economic Outlook from the IMF.  Japan’s 2011 public sector funding requirement is a stunning 60 percent of GDP, which includes the rollover of maturing debt equivalent … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Monetary Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Geithner’s Naughty List?

Posted on October 10, 2010 by macromon

Look no further than the Economist’s Big Mac Index to understand who is on the Treasury’s Naughty List.  It uses July exchange rates,  so a bit dated as the most recent currency moves are not included. Interestingly,  Japan and Brazil … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Commodities, Currency, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Rio’s $5.00 Big Macs and the Danger of Dutch Disease

Posted on October 10, 2010 by macromon

Things are getting expensive in Brazil, especially the price of a Big Mac!  Last time we were in Brazil, Big Mac’s were offered at the equivalent of $US.70 at the same time they were bid at US$2.75 in New York. … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Paradox of Zero Interest Rate Monetary Policy: Loose is Tight

Posted on October 6, 2010 by macromon

Let us take a moment to say we’re thankful for central bankers!  They have an extremely difficult job, make monumental decisions under great pressure and uncertainty, only to be constantly second guessed by a crowd of ignoramuses, including us! Someday … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Credit, Currency, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Breakup of the Euro isn’t unthinkable – Peer Steinbrueck

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

Peer Steinbrueck, who served as finance minister under Angela Merkel from 2005 to 2009, has published, Unterm Strich (“On Balance”), his insider view of the financial crisis. It looks to be a fascinating read.  Bloomberg has a great first look: … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

MS Poll: 53% Believe US Debt Crisis By 2012

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

An interesting chart from the Business Insider of the results of a Morgan Stanley survey of 150 clients at a recent investment conference.   Shockingly, more than 50% of the investors polled believe the US will experience a sovereign debt … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Quantum Mechanics of the U.S. Bond Market

Posted on September 27, 2010 by macromon

The 10-year Treasury rate fell almost 10 bps to close at 2.52 percent,  just 4 bps off its August 24 recent low.   A close below 2.50 percent will clear the way for a move to challenge the December ’08 low … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | 27 Comments

Ireland sovereign CDS spread hits 433 bps, an all-time high, up from 387 bps on Thursday

Posted on September 19, 2010 by macromon

Analysts tied the weakness in part to a research note from Barclays Capital which warned that the government may need to seek “outside help” in the event of unexpected financial-sector losses or if macroeconomic conditions prove worse than baseline forecasts … Continue reading →

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