Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

Posted on January 20, 2020 by macromon

  The surprising outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be, OK, Boomer.  It’s time to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation.    The younger generations dwarf the boomers in terms of sheer numbers but they have … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital

Posted on January 20, 2020 by macromon

Howard is always worth a listen.  Note the interview took place in October, so a bit dated. We found a true gem from his latest memo, however. This experience produced two of my most important observations: Success in investing doesn’t … Continue reading →

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The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time

Posted on January 17, 2020 by macromon

We are reposting this in honor of Dr. King, a truly great American. Originally Posted on January 21, 2019 During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major … Continue reading →

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The Secular Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Posted on January 16, 2020 by macromon

The title of the post is a bit of a misnomer. Though the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States is 40 plus percent higher than in 1939, the proportion of total private payrolls hit its lowest level in … Continue reading →

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How Is That Austrian Century Bond Doing?

Posted on January 15, 2020 by macromon

I guess it depends on your entry price.   The Austrian 2117 bond chart now looks like a broken stock. We did notice during summer feeding frenzy and August highs, our bond trading buddies in Europe were pounding the table the … Continue reading →

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Stocks Get Vertical & Vertigo

Posted on January 15, 2020 by macromon

This is some chart.  Even if you assume a structural shift in valuations began when the Fed started backstopping markets after the 1987 crash, that puts the average valuation of the Wilshire Market Cap to GDP at 92.58 percent.   That’s … Continue reading →

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“Phase 1” Of Potemkin Trade Deal Signed, Sealed, And Yet To Deliver

Posted on January 15, 2020 by macromon

We have been busy collecting bets on the outcome of the U.S.-China Trade Deal. We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring its economy and any deal would be … Continue reading →

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The New Quant Strategy

Posted on January 13, 2020 by macromon

Probably the most important thing I’ve ever done. @SinclairEuan @Barton_options @bennpeifert @LJKawa @iv_technicals @SqueezeMetrics @vixologist @AnodyneCode @dynamicvol @VolatilityWiz @pat_hennessy @ReformedTrader @VolCurve pic.twitter.com/sQwkfRgmDi — Jay Soloff (@jsoloff) January 13, 2020

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U.S. Treasury Borrowing & QE Forever

Posted on January 13, 2020 by macromon

The U.S. Treasury recently released the December monthly statement, which put us to work crunching the data.  Note the Treasury is on an October-September fiscal year.  We are using calendar years in our analysis. Federal Borrowing From The Public The … Continue reading →

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Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Posted on January 9, 2020 by macromon

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment