Ugly Politics Puts U.S. Bull Market At Risk

We often post political analysis but rarely stray into the crocodile-infested swamp of partisan politics. It is our duty to our readers from across a broad political spectrum to stay true to our mission to provide, mostly, positive economic, financial, and political analysis.

FBI Caught In The Political Cross-Fire

After today, however, we do have to register our disgust with how the good men and women of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been and are currently being used as political pawns by both political parties.

We have been around the block a few times and have had the privilege of knowing, personally, federal agents and members of the secret service, all charged with protecting the lives of Americans and various government leaders from President Jimmy Carter to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, among others.

All had their political perspectives and views and personal feelings on the leaders they protected. By no means were their politics uniform and some did not even care for those they were charged to defend. Yet we have no doubt each would have taken a bullet for those they had the responsibility to protect.

They were consummate professionals with the same constitutional right to their own opinions, political views and perspectives, and religion, for that matter. Thank goodness it was the good old days before the new tech NSA could crib our conservations or text messages.

2016 Presidential Election

During the 2016 presidential campaign, we felt for FBI Director James Comey, who was in an impossible situation.  We remember reading he had no choice to break precedent and speak up about the Democratic candidate’s email problem as he had a revolt on his hands at the FBI, which, according to the reporting at the time, consisted mostly of conservatives,

After Hillary lost, Bill Clinton summed up what many Democrats and even some Republicans still believe: “James Comey cost her the election.”

… why someone who prides himself on being apolitical became embroiled in a great political scandal

… why, long before October, did he set himself on a course where he began violating strongly held Justice Department and F.B.I. norms that prohibit speaking publicly about investigations, particularly of people you don’t charge and particularly when doing so might interfere with an election?

…F.B.I. agents still tend to be white males. In a way, this situation is systemic: to be promoted, you have to be willing to relocate, which can be difficult for women with children. A current agent also says that there’s a strong conservative bent: if a TV is on in an F.B.I. building, it’s likely to be Fox News. – Vanity Fair, February 2017

Republicans Turn

Now it’s the Republicans turn.

Today was a dark day for American democracy, in our opinion. Not only was the FBI deputy director forced to resign early, but the House (not so) Intelligence Committee also voted along party lines to release classified material with the appearance of the sole purpose to distract and obfuscate the ongoing investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

The majority party also announced they have opened an investigation into the Department of Justice and the FBI.  Smells like shoddy and shady politics to us, maybe even crossing the Rubicon in an attempt to obstruct justice.   No doubt the special counsel will be looking into it.

Trump Campaign Under FBI Investigation Before Election

One fact that looms large, at least to us, and seems to undercut the Republican suspicions of biasness at the Department of Justice and FBI is that the Trump campaign was already under an FBI investigation before election day.  In fact, it began way back in July 2016.

If the American voting public had been aware of the investigation and the seriousness of the allegations — potential campaign collusion with the Russians —  it would have surely swung at least the 77K votes in the three key swing states that put Trump over the top and, instead, thrown the election to Hillary Clinton.

By commenting publicly on the Clinton investigation and leaving the public in the dark on the Trump FBI investigation,  if anything,  in hindsight the FBI appears to have been  biased toward the Trump campaign.  Are we missing something?

Consequences Of Nasty Politics

The unintended consequences of today’s ugly politics in the U.S. could torpedo the global bull market in stocks.

What appears to be an attack on the rule of law in the United States could, if not checked, quicken an already plummeting perception of American leadership throughout the world and may give rise to domestic political instability.  No wonder the dollar is tanking when the fundamentals dictate it should be soaring.

Fear The American Street

If you have been reading us over the past year, we are very worried about the tranquility of the “American Street”, especially given the widening wealth gap.   A constitutional crisis, which may very well result from today’s events, could lead to a major political rupture in the U.S. body politic.   Not good for capital flows.

The rally on the Street seems to thus far pacified the “American Street” for now, however, turning new investors and Bitcoin moms into the new trading geniuses, as they whip and drive their crypto and cannabis stocks.

Let’s Not Lose Our Souls

All we are saying is give peace Mueller and the FBI a chance.  Let the chips fall where they may and let justice be done.

Finally,  let’s not lose our souls in this bull market by looking the other way and letting our most trusted democratic institution, the rule of law, which, has probably been the most significant factor of the world’s secular bullishness on America, fall by the wayside.

And what do you benefit if you gain the whole world but lose your own soul? – Jesus of Nazareth

By the way, this just in:

Washington (CNN)  The Trump administration has declined to impose sanctions against companies and foreign countries doing business with blacklisted Russian defense and intelligence entities.

The administration was required by law to name the companies and individuals Monday, and possibly sanction them under a 2016 law meant to punish Russia for its interference in the 2016 US election, as well as its human rights violations, annexation of Crimea and ongoing military operations in eastern Ukraine. – CNN

If Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein is forced to resign?  Tilt, game over.

Buckle up, folks.

 

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Watch This Space…

Because the eurozone is where the big bond bubble lives.

Though the euro periphery is now in Convergence 2.0 mode on hopes of eMac’s vision of a more integrated ‘zone, the German 10-year is at a critical level, and yields only 63 basis points in an economy that is probably growing close to 5 percent on a nominal annual basis.  It reflects a stunningly loose monetary policy and a central bank way behind the curve.

The repressed yield is technical as the German government’s new bond issuance is virtually nil as it runs a budget surplus and the dearth of bunds is exasperated by the ECB’s quantitative easing.  We have referenced this as a major factor of the “steel bubble” in asset prices,  the bursting of which is very stubborn.

A spike in bund yields could put further pressure on U.S. bond yields and may be the trigger for the long-awaited and ever fleeting equity market correction.  Maybe.

Stay tuned.

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Week In Review – January 26

Summary

The wealth effect – boosting consumption out of what is perceived as permanent wealth -seems to be kicking in.   Consumers are feeling flush with the humungo gains in stocks and housing over the past few years.  It also appears consumers are not cashing in on their theoretical wealth but rather reducing savings and taking on debt to finance the increase in consumption.   Or, it could be, those who do not own assets are reducing savings and taking on debt to finance their consumption.

Savings Rate_Jan29

David Rosenberg,  Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff,  dishes on the latest GDP release

We’ve seen this picture before.  Wealth is not always so permanent and therein lies the new “boom-bust cycle” of the new millennium.   “It’s the economy stock market, stupid.”

The global economy and stock markets are now in a positive feedback loop.

Fixed-income

– Global 10-year yields breaking higher across the G3 economies;
– U.S. 10-year at highest since April 2014;
– Germany highest since December 2015;
– Japan highest since July 2017;
– China down 10 bps after making a new multi-year high in past few weeks;
– Euro yields in Convergence 2.0 as the eMac Euro vision takes hold;
– Credit behaving bigly as the stock gains feedback into the bond markets.

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Weekly_Chart2

Source:  @charliebilello

Currencies

– Dollar flop continues after Secretary Mnuchin’s Davos faux pas.
– Traders sell the Trump walk back.

Stocks

– Ditto last week: global stocks keep ripping, especially emerging markets;
– Brazil, baby, on Não Lula!  Country’s ETF now up 17 percent in dollars for the month.

Week_2017_ETFsOther Risk Indicators

– Biotech and retail having a gangbuster January;
– Euro banks confirming breakout;
– Russell 2000 lagging, even though up almost 5 percent for the month. Stunning;
– Bad week for Trannies. Watch this space.

Commodities

– Nattie with another yuuuge week on the nation’s cold snap. Look to fade;
— Crude up on massive net positioning by specs.  Look to fade.

Weekly_Chart4

Source: Quandl

 

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Big Brother Alive And Well And Living In China (Must View)

This clip from the BBC is incredible and very disconcerting.

We suspect this technology, and the use thereof, is not just limited to China but ubiquitous throughout Western countries.   Double yikes!

China has been building what it calls “the world’s biggest camera surveillance network”. Across the country, 170 million CCTV cameras are already in place and an estimated 400 million new ones will be installed in the next three years.

Many of the cameras are fitted with artificial intelligence, including facial recognition technology. The BBC’s John Sudworth has been given rare access to one of the new hi-tech police control rooms.

Producer: Joyce Liu. Camera: Wang Xiqing.

Please subscribe HERE http://bit.ly/1rbfUog

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Hat Tip:  Larry Wagner

 

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Sector ETF Performance – January 26

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Global Risk Monitor – January 26

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Top 10 Most Expensive and Cheapest Stock Markets

 

… look at the table ranking the top and bottom 10 countries by PE10 valuation. The bottom features a couple of usual suspects (Russia and Greece), although in the case of Greece you might argue that earnings are now structurally lower so the PE10 is less useful for that particular market. At the top end, it’s likewise many usual suspects: America and a selection of high growth Asian countries (and Japan). While there are some similarities between those at the top and bottom it’s hard to make a broad sweeping statement which generalizes the two groups  – TOPDOWN Charts

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Expensive and Cheap Global Stock Markets

Hat Tip:  Derek Pietro

 

 

 

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Why the dollar is weak – FT

Authers dishes on the weak dollar.

You know our suspicions (and just that – suspicions – as nobody really knows with certainty), which should negate some of this morning’s reversal on the president’s comments that sent shorts scrambling. Unless that is, we see a dramatic turnaround in how the world perceives the Trump administration.

Maybe in for a short-term bounce as the flamethrower seems to have been shelved in  Davos, for now, but longer-term doubtful.

Almost hit the 87 measured move we targeted last week.

John Authers explains why the US dollar is so weak, and how it distorts perceptions of other markets

► Subscribe to FT.com here: http://bit.ly/2GakujT

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Dollar_Jan25

 

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Rosie The Riveter Tweets A Red Flag

Note the date of James Baker’s comment.

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Dangerous Gambit Out Of Davos

We woke to a comment out of Davos that surprised both us and the market.

Dollar_Jan24

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, broke from tradition and welcomed a weaker dollar.

“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Mnuchin told reporters in Davos. Mnuchin said recent declines in the value of the dollar against other currencies were “not a concern of ours at all.” – Steven Mnuchin

We question the Secretary’s  wisdom and timing of such an announcement. The White House tried to walk some of it back, but, it appeared, only half-heartedly.

Foreigners Are America’s Largest Creditor

First, foreigners own more than 50 percent of marketable Treasury securities and now finance most of the U.S. budget deficit.  It comes at a time when the Fed, who has monetized almost all the U.S. budget deficits since the great financial crisis (GFC), has stopped QE and has even begun to run off their Treasury holdings.

Treasury_Holdings_ Jan24

All other things being equal (which they are not), interest rates will have to rise to compensate foreign holders of U.S. bonds for the weaker currency.

How do you think the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are feeling today with their country’s  $2 trillion-plus holdings of Treasury securities?

Pissed off, we suspect.

We have voiced our concern as we have noticed over the past few weeks the dollar weakening as interest rates are rising. A red flag.

Bad Timing 

Second, is the timing.

The U.S. economy is humming at full capacity with inflation already on the cusp of moving higher. A weaker dollar is, effectively, a monetary easing and makes the Fed’s job that much harder at a time when financial conditions are incredibly loose.

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Financial Conditios_Jan24

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The Administration also just announced the implementation of tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. LG Electronics has already announced they plan to raise prices on some of its models.  Retaliation by our trading partners seems likely.  Ergo inflationary pressures increase on the margin.

Tax Repatriation To Strengthen The Dollar?

Finally, we hear from market pundits the dollar is going to strengthen because, say, Apple, is about to repatriate all its foreign holdings of $200 billion-plus cash back to the United States.

Doesn’t Apple already hold almost, if not, all of its cash in dollar-denominated securities? The only difference is that most is domiciled in Ireland. Thus no need for currency conversion, right?  Just askin’.

We suspect that the same holds for most U.S. multinationals.  Please correct us if we are wrong.

Geopolitics and the global political economy are about to get even more interesting.

Amateur hour in Davos.

SM_Jan24

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