Category Archives: Bonds

Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

Posted on March 12, 2020 by macromon

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why We’re Big Fans Of Johnny “Cash”

Posted on February 20, 2020 by macromon

Of course, if Larry M.’s Lehman-like drawdown scenario is realized, haven flows and shorts will pile into long-notes and bonds as a proxy short but we have no interest in trading fixed-income securities with a 100 bps negative real yield. … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Posted on January 9, 2020 by macromon

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Posted on December 19, 2019 by macromon

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

Posted on December 17, 2019 by macromon

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Turmoil In The Money Markets & Financing Burgeoning Budget Deficits

Posted on September 26, 2019 by macromon

Sit up and listen, folks.  We may be in the midst of a Black Swan event. Nobody knows for certain what is creating the turmoil in the repo and money markets but we suspect much of it has to do … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Rent Control Issues Hit 7-year Bond Auction

Posted on August 29, 2019 by macromon

At least, that is our view. We have worried out loud how global interest rate repression may cause ugly bond auctions. A problem that similarly arises in the rent-controlled housing market. …we are watching the Treasury auctions closely and suspect … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, China, Credit, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments

The Short-Term Heavy Treasury Curve

Posted on August 15, 2019 by macromon

Before reading further we suggest you look at our latest post, The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion, for some context.   Gravitational Pull Toward Curve Flattening And Inversions Note the structure of the Treasury curve in terms of the amount of … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged | 3 Comments

The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

Posted on August 15, 2019 by macromon

We should be on vacation but it never fails that volatility spikes as soon as we leave our desk.   It must be the Ides Of August. Wait, it is.  Et tu Brutal! Nevertheless, we can’t help ourselves and have to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

More Monetary Insanity & The Negative Yielding Bond Bubble

Posted on August 13, 2019 by macromon

Had to get this last one in before we hit the surf. We like to look at the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI calculation as it removes monthly outliers that can pull the averages up or down.  It hit a 10-year … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments