Category Archives: Equities

The Looming Donnybrook Between Cyclical & Structural

Posted on April 1, 2018 by macromon

This next quarter is going to be a major battle between the cyclical bulls and structural bears. Cyclical Bulls The bulls have the strength of current earnings, which may, or may not be priced (probably the later as the market is … Continue reading →

Posted in Earnings, Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Another S&P500 Streak Snapped

Posted on April 1, 2018 by macromon

The first quarter ends with another snapped streak for the S&P500. Going into Q1, the S&P500 had delivered positive returns for 16 consecutive quarters or four straight years. The chart illustrates how rare the streak has been over the past half … Continue reading →

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Q1 in Review

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon

Q1: Lake Placid To The Mavericks The markets closed out the quarter trying to recover from one of the biggest volatility shocks in history, which began in early February.   The question for Q2 is:  Was the v-shock a one-off or a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Unmoored & Rudderless Stock Market

Posted on March 28, 2018 by macromon

Didn’t today’s market feel like a rudderless sailboat ripped from its mooring and blown about by random gusts of wind (algos)?   We count the Dow crossed the unchanged line at least thirty times today. The generals have have been taken … Continue reading →

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Our Favorite Pairs Trade

Posted on March 27, 2018 by macromon

Difficult to short such beauty… Long Short

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The JFK-Trump S&P Analog Roadmap – BTFFD

Posted on March 27, 2018 by macromon

We have had lots of requests to update our JFK-Trump S&P500 analog.  Here you go. The Kennedy-Trump S&P500 analog is tracking, on a directional basis, relatively well, with the Trump S&P now 3.56 percent below the JFK S&P, 347 trading … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments

China’s Other Nuclear Option

Posted on March 25, 2018 by macromon

Sorry to be such a downer, folks. We have to stress test the macro scenarios versus current market conditions by looking at worst case events, then calculating expected values based on the most likely probabilities. Especially after such a huge … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, China, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 18 Comments

Still No Relief From The Bond Market

Posted on March 25, 2018 by macromon

Last week the S&P500 sold down 5.95 percent. We noted in an earlier post, Why This Correction Is Different, in that the current sell-off is different from all other corrections over the past 30 years (except a special case in … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Living In Historical Rhymes

Posted on March 24, 2018 by macromon

Wow!  Just watched the October 16, 1987 Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser,which was the trading day eve (Friday night) before the Black Monday stock market crash.  Marty Zweig famously nailed it. The show ends with this eerily familiar exchange between … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

EU unveils digital tax on tech giants – FT

Posted on March 22, 2018 by macromon

The European Commission has revealed its plan for a 3% tax on the revenues of big technology groups in response to pressure from EU governments, which want the likes of Google, Facebook and Amazon to start paying a fairer share … Continue reading →

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