Category Archives: Interest Rates

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Posted on September 21, 2018 by macromon

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust

Posted on September 17, 2018 by macromon

Great chart from Charlie B.   He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman,  nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

Charts That Count: QE QED

Posted on September 10, 2018 by macromon

Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers the story of the world’s attempts to stop the financial crisis turning into a Great Depression has been dominated by central banks’ balance sheets. John Authers describes how this averted total disaster and sparked … Continue reading →

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Will The Real Bond King Stand Up?

Posted on August 22, 2018 by macromon

We get it. Jeff Gundlach (we are some of his biggest fans) is a trader at heart, as are we, and is very cognizant of short-term market technicals. He recently tweeted, Massive increase this week in short positions against 10 … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 12 Comments

QE And The Laurel vs. Yanny Distortion

Posted on June 4, 2018 by macromon

Interesting clip from Wired,  interviewing  a neuroscientist explaining how people get the sound Laurel and Yanny name so different. The interview is profound if you take the principles and apply them to the markets.  It’s all about reading the correct … Continue reading →

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Long-Term Yields Break Higher

Posted on May 15, 2018 by macromon

The 10-year Treasury yield broke out and closed above a new 5-year high today. If you didn’t catch our analysis from a few weeks back why long-term interest rates were set to move higher, run don’t walk to,  Prepare For Much … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Druck On Distorted Interest Rates

Posted on May 13, 2018 by macromon

…today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be regularly distorted by public intervention. …If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Interest Rates, Quote of the Day, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Italy’s North-South Economic Divide – France24

Posted on May 9, 2018 by macromon

Italy 10-year closed at 1.88 percent today,  6.7 bps wider versus the 10-year bund for the week, but still 14 bps tighter year-to-date. The Italian 10-year government bond is 112 bps through the U.S. 10-year note yield, and the country … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Paul Tudor Jones

Posted on May 8, 2018 by macromon

Note, no mention of “recession”, the trigger for the cheerleaders.  The bear market of    1962 and 1987 occurred with robust economic growth. You look at every bear market and they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Fed Chair Jay Powell

Posted on May 8, 2018 by macromon

  I do not dismiss the prospective risks emanating from global policy normalization. Some investors and institutions may not be well positioned for a rise in interest rates, even one that markets broadly anticipate. And, of course, future economic conditions … Continue reading →

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