Getting closer to the inevitable, IMHO. Labor is buying in.
Oh yes, you did hear it here (well, we pounded – pun intended – the table) first.
We still think cable trades to 1.35 into an announcement, then some big political volatility that will rock the casbah currency, but eventually moves to the higher end of a 1.40 handle as the remainers win in a landslide. The simple demographics of death makes it almost inevitable folks, very similar to the political path in the States over the next few years as the old white guys fade away and “millennial socialism” ascends to power.
Of the 600,000 Brits who die annually, Kellner postulated an 80 per cent turnout, with two thirds voting to leave, which breaks down to 320,000 voting to depart the EU and 160,000 wanting to stay.
Meanwhile, 700,000 youngsters come of age each year. In the younger cohort, 65 per cent voted in the referendum, with 87 per cent voting to remain, suggesting each year sees Britain gain 395,000 remain voters and 60,000 leave voters purely by teenagers turning 18. – Wired
Sterling is trading like an EM currency up almost 4 percent YTD.
Remember our Jan 3rd trade?
Taking cable right here at 1.2670 (March). Stop at 1.2470. Target 1.35.
Looking for positive BREXIT news: either Corbyn caves and supports a new referendum or soft BREXIT potential emerges. We do recognize the risk of big volatility to the downside if the politics go sideways – GMM, Jan 3rd
We’ve been in and out, which has been a mistake.
We are a bit confused about last night’s POTUS tweet asking China to remove tariffs immediately on agricultural products. We know the president is under tremendous pressure from farmers who are losing their arse and their farms in his trade war.
“Farm loan delinquencies just hit the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.” – WashPost, Feb 28th
Stumped
If negotiations are going so well and China is ready to agree to buy billions, and billions and billions of additional American goods, mostly ag, over the next several years to reduce the trade deficit, by extension doesn’t that mean the tariffs come off?
Or is Trump just looking for a good faith gesture by the Chinese for not slapping on additional tariffs yesterday? The Chinese might find the tweet offensive as the tariffs Trump is asking them to reduce are mainly retaliatory from the first round of the trade war. China could respond “we have already made a concession by not slapping on additional tariffs to retaliate against the tariffs the U.S. threatened to implement on March 1.”
Or is POTUS trying to score political points in the farm belt ensuring that he gets credit when a final deal is struck? It will take some time for farmers to recover from the China trade shock and will still have to worry about an additional round of retaliatory tariffs if POTUS goes to war with Europe over autos.
Or is the president trying to put more pressure on Xi for additional concessions?
Or is not everything as awesome as Lary Kudlow projects in the China talks?
Or is Trump trying to look tough after the North Korean summit debacle? By the way, the president did the right thing by walking but should have never been in Vietnam with KJU, in the first place.
Or is the fact we are talking about it exactly what motivates POTUS to tweet?
Or is the tweet just random impulse and nothing there?
Or…? You decide, folks.
Come on now. Put your politics aside and smile at this one.
For those not familiar with the comic strip, see here for some context.
Hat Tip: Social✽Fly @socflyny
Miss #7. The original “Natural.”
Bonus
Summary
Foreign Demand For U.S. Wheat Drying Up
Global Macro Monitor 