



QOTD = Quote of the Day
Central banks have inflated the entire market: it has been impossible to pick winners. – FT

Markets
Over his long and illustrious career, Mr Buffett has beaten the market handily, but over the past 10 years, the return of Berkshire Hathaway shares is 274 per cent. Which looks impressive until you consider the S&P 500 has returned 273 per cent. – FT

The Flowless Stock Recovery

Economics


Companies
EM
Perhaps the most remarkable change since the crises of the 1990s has come in the way emerging-market countries finance their debt. Governments now borrow much more in their own currencies than in foreign ones, making them less vulnerable to runs and currency crises. But risks remain. – Agustin Carstens, FA
Geopolitics
Tech
Most Clueless Article Of The Week
Bonus
The is a must view, folks. Here is the link to the article

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QOTD: Quote of the Day

Court is one of those places where facts still matter – Judge Amy Berman Jackson, March 13, 2019
Why do we believe Judge Jackson’s quote will be carved in stone, though the words may live in infamy? Thank goodness, at least in her court, words and facts still have meaning.






I am listening to the live debate in the House of Commons about the vote, which just took place voting down a “no-deal Brexit,” 321-278, close enough to make us a little nervous. Some MPs are up in arms that the vote is “indicative” and not policy.
Does the will of the House trump the will of the people? – MP of British House of Commons
We ask you again, are you surprised that in our post-Truth world we live that all things are indicative, nothing matters, nothing is binding, alternative facts, fake news, and now fake athletes?
You can now redefine your child, for a $400K bribe, as a football placekicker, and get him into Stanford. Man, I smell pitchforks on this one! AOC will be on the warpath.
Article 50 Extension Vote Tomorrow
The House of Commons votes tomorrow on extending the Article 50 March 29th deadline to leave the EU.
You know where we stand.
Big buyers of cable (pound/dollar) all year, as we believe the MPs will eventually have to take this debate to the people, which the remainers should win overwhelmingly. Cable up almost 2 percent today and closing in on its 6-month high. The pound is trading like an EM currency, now up almost 5 percent for the year, which is causing the export-heavy FSTE to significantly lag DM stock markets year-to-date.

Coming “Summer Political Discontent?”
There will be some political instability into a second referendum vote as the Brexiteers take to the street. Depending on how things shape up with President Trump’s legal troubles, we may be moving into a transatlantic “summer of discontent,” where the U.K. and U.S. experience a bout of political and social instability.
Hey, we are always nervous and on the lookout for off-the-radar tail events.
Buy the French British dip in cable, and keep the above on your radar.
In our Monday post, we stated,
Absolutely stunning to see such large budget deficits as far as the eye can see with the actual and projected unemployment rate under 5 percent. What kind of budget deficit beast will we run if we have a recession? Will demand for Treasury securities be there to finance, say, a $2 trillion deficit? – GMM
Jeff Gundlach illustrates our concern in a chart from his presentation today, Highway To Hell

What Does Ray Dalio Think?
Wow, more than $2.5 trillion-plus in new Treasury issuance hitting the market during the next recession. No wonder Fed Chair Jay Powell looked a little pale during his 60 Minutes on Sunday night.
Given the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market, we are not so sure the markets can absorb such a large supply shock, which would overwhelm even the massive increase in haven inflows into Treasuries during a recession. The Fed would be forced to finance a yuuge portion just as they did indirectly during the first few rounds of QE.
The question is how will a new round of the effective monetization of potentially $2.5-3.0 trillion annual deficits impact confidence in/and the demand for the dollar? Especially after it is evident the Fed can’t normalize its balance sheet without a major market disruption even with a 3.8 percent unemployment rate. Beijing and Tokyo, we have a problem.
This is how emerging markets get into trouble, folks. Money demand collapses when the citizenry and its foreign creditors lose confidence in their currency and central bank. And ”confidence is a very fragile thing.”
Hedge fund great Ray Dalio also has some thoughts on the topic,
Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio predicted the U.S. economy is about two years from a downturn, which will see the dollar plunge as the government prints money to fund a swelling deficit…
“We have to sell a lot of Treasury bonds, and we as Americans will not be able to buy all those treasury bonds,” he said. “The Federal Reserve will have to print more money to make up for the deficit, will have to monetize more, and that’ll cause a depreciation in the value of the dollar.”
…The currency may “easily” weaken by as much as 30 percent, creating a “dollar crisis,” he said, though the economic contraction won’t be as sharp or severe as it was after the 2008 financial crisis. – Ray Dalio, Bloomberg, Sept 2018
That is just about Game Over, folks. No one cares, anymore.
That is why we all should worry even more.





