Japan’s Contrary Move On Immigration

Japan zigs (liberalizing) while the U.S. and Europe zag (restricting) on immigration.

Interestingly Japan recognizes that immigration can move the needle on growth and is moving to finally liberalize its policies.    There are three main factors that drive economic growth:

  • Accumulation of capital stock
  • Increases in labor inputs, such as workers or hours worked
  • Technological advancement

One of the considerations that drove Angela Merkel’s liberal immigration policy, which has torn Europe apart politically.

TOKYO — Japan’s parliament passed a bill early Saturday morning that will create a new foreign worker program to help address labor shortages, opening the country’s doors to blue-collar laborers in a major policy shift. 

…The Japanese government, which has long remained cautious about accepting foreign workers, was swayed by a business sector contending with severe labor shortages. As opposition parties have pointed out, however, challenges remain, such as ensuring decent working conditions and providing adequate language training to ensure that the country can continue to attract foreign talent.

…But the question remains whether Japan’s wages can attract workers from Asia, given that most jobs covered by the new immigration system are relatively low-wage.

Japan’s wages are not much higher than those of rivals in the region. Low-skilled factory workers in Tokyo make about $2,406 per month compared with $1,992 in Hong Kong and $1,630 in Singapore.

The government is calling on employers to pay foreign personnel at least the same as Japanese citizens. Concern persists that adding more workers from overseas will lower wage levels in the country. Experts also warn that most workers will seek jobs in Tokyo and other large cities rather than rural areas, where labor is most short.  – Nikkei Asian Review

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Week In Review – December 14

Summary

  • Bond yields relatively stable in spite of weak and volatile equities
  • Bookend EM 10-year yields – Brazil in 40 bps, Turkey out 70 bps
  • U.S. credit stabilized last week
  • Dixie traded to new 52-week high but couldn’t close above the November 12th closing high
  • Cable getting schmoked on the BREXIT clown show.  Starting to look interesting as we think the end game is “Exit the BREXIT” with a second referendum. Timing is tricky
  • Euro sovereign spreads tighter
  • The Russell continues to lead U.S. stock indices lower
  • Transports hit again, now down over 12 percent in first two weeks of December trading.  Watch this schpace.
  • Nattie lives up to its name, “the widow maker” with yuuge vol.   The grains are starting to look interesting.  Trying to break out of trading range.

Commentary – The next week will close the books on a volatile and ugly 2018 for almost every asset class.  Mr. Market is hoping Chairman Powell will pull a rabbit out of his hat at the FOMC this week.  How is that it was the “greatest economy in the world” and no worries over the flat yield curve at the beginning of September to “the economy is sliding into recession”  and beware the inversion of the yield curve?

Let us tell you why.  At the end of September, the 10-year note yield broke out to new highs as the U.S. government borrowing requirement is hoovering up all the world’s dollar liquidity.  The U.S. stock market cracked, and given the new economy,  asset markets are now a huge driver of growth, very unhealthy in the long-term, especially with such a wide wealth disparity.   The Fed is now effectively charged with keeping assets afloat and moving higher to keep the economy, at least, treading water.  As wealth becomes more concentrated,  the marginal effect of higher asset prices diminishes, resulting in a need for even higher asset prices.

We are not sure Chairman Powell will recognize this, or recognizes it all, for that matter.  Monetary policy can’t change it, it’s too late.  Only structural changes can fix the asset price driven economy

Dollar Liquidity

The markets are also now in a zero-sum game competing for dollar liquidity.  The U.S. government borrowing requirements have never been higher,  “the biggest dollar amount of securities for sale as a percentage of GDP since World War II“, and are on auto-pilot unless the Fed quits shrinking its balance sheet.   Therefore the natural impulse is for interest rates to rise in the U.S. unless haven flows off-set the huge increase in the new supply of U.S. govies hitting the market.

Haven flows are generated by selling in other markets.  That is exactly what has happened over the past six weeks.  Don’t get lost in the noise, folks.

S&P

The 2018 closing low at 2581 beckons.  We think a test of the year’s low at 2532.69 is a done deal.   It’s a mug’s game but we believe going into to the new week they keep selling ’em and then a rally into the Fed meeting.   The Fed is painted in a corner.  If it recognizes weakness, the market sells.  If they acknowledge the continued relatively strong data, such as retail sales and labor tightness,  the market sells.  In other words,  pack it up and enjoy your holidays.

 

Week_Chart_2

 

Global Equity Returns

Equity Returns

 

Germany’s Perverted Yield Curve

 

Jeff Bezos’ Company Christmas Party

Amazon_Christmas_Party

 

 

Week_2018_ETFs

 

Week_Table

 

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World (War I) Series

This is so cool…more than baseball heroes!

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Ten Good Weekend Reads

Week_Chart_1

  • Haven dollar touches 1½-year high as global growth worries dominate trading – MarketWatch
  • Conte Says His Budget Deficit Offer Is the Best Italy Can Do – Bloomberg
  • The Fed’s Critical Role for 2019 – Barron’s
  • Business debt swells to $9 trillion, worrying investors  – PBS

 

EMBI_Spread

  • Fund Flow Data Suggests Traders Are Betting On Emerging Markets Heading Into 2019 – MarketWatch
  • Analysts Who Warned of Emerging-Market Rout Expect Painful 2019 – Bloomberg
  • Trump, a global loner, finds his China trade war complaints draw a crowd – Washington Post
  • Seeking lessons from China’s long economic boom – Economist
  • North Korea’s high-tech pursuits: Propaganda or progress?  – BBC
  • Post-Crisis Margin Requirements Start To Bite Large Traders – ValueWalk

 Bonus

 

Mobile Medical Clinic

 

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Global Risk Monitor – December 14

RiskMon_1

RiskMon_2

 

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ETF Sector Performance – December 14

ETF_Day

ETF_W

ETF_M

ETF_Q

ETF_YTD

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Green growth

Just Do It

In this episode of Business Planet we focus on the efforts underway to encourage innovation and transform industry in Europe. …

READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/12/14/gr…

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The Mechanics Of Happiness

https://twitter.com/zonephysics/status/1072923141977063425?s=21

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Inflation With A Draghi Tatoo?

During this morning’s ECB press conference,  Super Mario sent a clear message to the markets:  the ECB’s printing press, QE, is a permanent fixture in the central bank’s arsenal or “toolbox.”   If you’re not inferring from his words that inflation is the end game, what are you thinking?

Why isn’t QE effective in Venezuela or Argentina?

Maybe because the countries’ central banks went to to the well (printed money) too many times in the past wrecking confidence and demand for the local currency.

The reserve status of a currency, which, by itself, generates intrinsic demand, does not last forever and demand is not infinite.

Inflation The End Game

That is why, listening to Mario and other central bankers, we believe inflation is the end game, folks.   Not yet,  and maybe not the next crisis.

There will be, most certainly, a few big deflation scares in the interim,  which will sow the seeds of the big inflation as the central bankers fire up the printing presses again and again.  Probably in the form of some kind of “People’s QE” monetizing unfunded pension liabilities and a universal basic income (UBI).

We are not taking a political position for or against the pension fix or UBI, but are fairly certain it won’t accomplish what policymakers think if funded by QE.

The advanced economies need structural fixes starting with dealing with the huge and growing disparity of wealth and income.

Kafkaesque

It’s Kafkaesque that market pundits and the POTUS are screaming at the Fed to stop raising rates with a zero real Fed funds rate.  Something is rotten in the state of  Denmark  the economy, folks.

No more cyclical tools to fix structural problems.   Let’s get it on with it.

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The Profundity Of An Autistic Second Grader

I have been off the desk a few days traveling.  Spent yesterday at a center for children with learning disabilities.  What an incredible and enlightening experience.

My oldest daughter, a psychology graduate, who is now a behavioral therapist working with autistic children always exhorts me not to stereotype these kids as gifted, savants, you know, kind of like Rainman.

It’s hard for me not to, however, as my middle daughter had a good friend in grammar school with medium to severe autism.  She always won the school spelling bee — second to her was not even close — and went on to do very well at the higher level competitions. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get it, one example.

Nevertheless, no matter their condition, they are all special and gifted.  We all have a responsibility and duty as members of the Lucky Sperm Club to help these kids recognize their gifts and realize their full potential.  Actually, it’s a commandment.

Then there is this.

2nd Grade Austim

Source:  fatbraintoys.com 

Take a few moments to stare at the above test and think about it, folks.  Who’s the genius?

Wonder how this kid would interpret the current market conditions?   I’d bet on him/her over the perpetual cheerleading, buy the French dip, lemming market pundits and parrots.   Any day and every day.

Always looking for new, alternative, and rigorous analysis and perspective.

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