No political statement here but the following decision tree illustrates how algorithms can be biased. Note decision trees are a fundamental tool of artificial intelligence, algorithms and predictive analytics and their biases can destroy lives and even countries.
Hat Tip: @ianbremmer
Algo Or Government Reaction Function
We hope the decision tree is not the algo or reaction function of the current U.S. government and the Congressional leadership, but to use Milton Friedman’s analogy of the pool player using but not understanding the laws of physics, they act as if it is.
To illustrate this, consider Milton Friedman’s famous exposition of the as if argument. He used the analogy of a snooker player who does not know the geometry of the shots they make but behaves in close approximation to how they would if they did make the appropriate calculations. We could, therefore, model the snooker player’s game by using such equations, even though this would not strictly describe the mechanics of the game. – Unlearning Economics
It is also one reason why we are bearish on the American Street and expect political and social instability to increase in the U.S. over the next few years. The politicos are stunningly tone deaf to the mood and needs of the vast majority of the American public. The “Swamp” is now at the elbow of exponential growth. Something is going to break.
We now fear the American Street more than the Arab Street.
Don’t Forget The Victims Of Florida School Shooting
Just look at the pictures and listen to stories of the kids and adults killed in the recent school shooting in Florida. Heartbreaking.
The reaction of the country, the victims’ families, and even the high school students that survived the shooting seems different this time.
Do you sense the rage building? Could this be the tipping point?
The Second Amendment
We are strict constructionists in reading the U.S. Constitution here at the Global Macro Monitor. Therefore we believe the second amendment allows for the right of every American to carry a Brown Bess, the most common musket used on both sides during the Revolutionary War, the timeframe when the Constitution was written. Nothing more.
Assault rifles, such as the AR-15? No f#*king way (NFW).
On The Side Of Reagan And Scalia
We side with both President Reagan and Justice Scalia on this one.
“I do not believe in taking away the right of the citizen for sporting, for hunting and so forth, or for home defense,” he said. “But I do believe that an AK-47, a machine gun, is not a sporting weapon or needed for defense of a home.” – President Reagan
“It may be objected that if weapons that are most useful in military service — M-16 rifles and the like — may be banned, then the Second Amendment right is completely detached from the prefatory clause. But as we have said, the conception of the militia at the time of the Second Amendment’s ratification was the body of all citizens capable of military service, who would bring the sorts of lawful weapons that they possessed at home to militia duty. It may well be true today that a militia, to be as effective as militias in the 18th century, would require sophisticated arms that are highly unusual in society at large. Indeed, it may be true that no amount of small arms could be useful against modern-day bombers and tanks. But the fact that modern developments have limited the degree of fit between the prefatory clause and the protected right cannot change our interpretation of the right.” – Justice Scalia
The time, though long past, has come.
Appendix
If you have time, make sure to watch this 12 minute video on the dangers of bias in algos and artificial intelligence. Well worth your time.
