Tag Archives: Stock Market

Are We Cheap Yet?

Posted on February 28, 2020 by macromon

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Stock Market Returns And Presidents – Beware Of Averaging

Posted on January 5, 2020 by macromon

We have warned about looking at averages (see here), especially with such skewed distributions and how a couple outliers can greatly distort this most common statistical metric. Real Life Macro Economy Example:  2019 Q1:  Average U.S. Household Wealth =  $803.3K … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Beware Of The S&P’s Doji City

Posted on October 16, 2019 by macromon

In our Saturday post,  Heads Up! Friday’s Rare S&P Shooting Star Candlestick,  we pointed out the S&P500 had formed a rate shooting star Doji candlestick on Friday with price action that had been observed only once since 2010, last Halloween day. Run don’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Beware Shorting Impeachments

Posted on September 24, 2019 by macromon

Reposting a piece from a few years back to provide some market perspective on today’s news.  There are a confluence of events, not just political instability, of why we believe stocks are headed lower, including valuations and the shifting of … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Posted on July 31, 2019 by macromon

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield

Posted on October 10, 2018 by macromon

Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least. Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Major Stock Index Recovery Percentages

Posted on March 9, 2018 by macromon

Today’s big rally on the back of the Goldilocks employment report, i.e, strong jobs growth and moderate wage pressures, took the Nasdaq, with its 45 percent tech weighting,  to an all-time high.  Not the overall market, however, as the NYSE … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Gundlach Channels Our “Mark Of The Beast” Market

Posted on February 4, 2018 by macromon

Love Jeffrey Gundlach.  As with everyone, not always right as nobody knows the future, but his analytical roadmap to decision making is rigorous, and he has the big ‘nads to pound the contrarian table. That earns him much respect, in … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Market Liquidity Conditions Still Loose As A Goose

Posted on July 16, 2017 by macromon

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in December 2015,  financial market liquidity conditions have loosened considerably.   Recall our post,  Orwellian Monetary Policy,  which we wrote in May. “Tightening is Easing” Since U.S. monetary policy began tightening in December … Continue reading →

Posted in Algos, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 17 Comments

Beware Shorting Impeachments

Posted on May 18, 2017 by macromon

We’ve analyzed the behavior of the S&P500 during the Watergate impeachment hearings and the Clinton impeachment.  If you’re shorting risk markets solely based on speculation that President Trump may be impeached, maybe you should think again. Let’s first look at … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 10 Comments