Category Archives: China

The Week in Review: BRICs to FRICs?

Posted on January 22, 2011 by macromon

Vive la France! Who would of “thunk” it? The French CAC outperforming India by 13 percent in the first three weeks of the year? Will Goldie’s Jim O’Neill now replace Brazil with France in the BRIC countries and rename the … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Monetarism Redefined: Crude, Fine Wine & Gold

Posted on January 20, 2011 by macromon

“Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” – Milton Freidman Monetarism as a theory, which states that the variation in the money supply has major influences on national output in the short run and the price level over longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

ChinaLeaks: Dec CPI slows to 4.6%, GDP Grows 10.3% in 2010

Posted on January 19, 2011 by macromon

Looks like someone in the CenBank is  worried about the stock market and leaked economic data, which was not due out until Thursday.    Nice cred!    The Straits Times reports, BEIJING – CHINA’S economy grew 10.3 per cent last year as … Continue reading →

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Shanghai Breaks 200-day, Commodites Next to Roll?

Posted on January 17, 2011 by macromon

During the 1990’s when the emerging markets were still emerging a friend of ours wrote a research report on pre-restructured busted Russian debt titled, No Rush to Buy, No Russians Buying.  The point was the Russians knew the prospects for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

The Week in Review: Waiting for Godot

Posted on January 15, 2011 by macromon

This market just won’t quit!  The S&P500 hasn’t had a one percent correction since November 23rd and those waiting for a better entry just keep waiting and waiting and waiting.  France’s CAC was the best weekly performer of the major … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Commodities, Energy, Equities, Euro, Week in Review | 1 Comment

The [First] Week in Review: A Capital Flows Sandwich?

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Not a bad start to the year if you were in the right space.  A Frenchman with a long position in “Apple the Sovereign” was up over 8 percent in Euros.   Note, Apple rose another $2.00 to $338 after Friday’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Bonds, Charts, China, Commodities, Currency, Economics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2011 Risk: China Watch

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Getting China right in 2011 will make or break the P&L this year.   The direction of the China’s economy will determine the direction of many markets, including commodities and emerging equities. We’re still trying to get a handle on the … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Economics, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Yuan Set for Almost 10% Real Appreciation in 2010

Posted on December 30, 2010 by macromon

We find it interesting there is very little mention of China’s  real exchange rate in the media.  With official inflation in China set to outpace that in U.S. by 5 percent this year,  coupled with a nominal appreciation of the … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Great Monetary Policy Swan Dive

Posted on December 28, 2010 by macromon

Great chart from the OECD illustrating the dramatic actions taken by the world’s major central banks during the financial crisis.   The massive collapse in short-term interest rates has reduced income of savers and the splash of the heavyweight central banks … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment