Category Archives: Monetary Policy

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The S&P500 in 2011: What’s past is prologue?

Posted on December 31, 2010 by macromon

Let’s be honest and a little humble as we venture into the “great wide open” of 2011. Nobody really has a clue what path the markets will take.  Given what we’ve all been through and the uncertainty and plethora of … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments

Yuan Set for Almost 10% Real Appreciation in 2010

Posted on December 30, 2010 by macromon

We find it interesting there is very little mention of China’s  real exchange rate in the media.  With official inflation in China set to outpace that in U.S. by 5 percent this year,  coupled with a nominal appreciation of the … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Ukraine Parliamentary Procedure

Posted on December 28, 2010 by macromon

Let’s play Hardball!   Looking forward to this year’s “Thrilla on Capitol Hilla” between Chairman Ben Bernanke and Congressman Ron Paul, the new Chairman of the Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee.  Our bet Bernanke will play … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

The Great Monetary Policy Swan Dive

Posted on December 28, 2010 by macromon

Great chart from the OECD illustrating the dramatic actions taken by the world’s major central banks during the financial crisis.   The massive collapse in short-term interest rates has reduced income of savers and the splash of the heavyweight central banks … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Charts, China, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

China Rate Hike: Four Markets to Watch

Posted on December 26, 2010 by macromon

Fearsome Foursome We’re watching the reaction in four markets to gauge how the Christmas gift from the Kings of the East will affect global risk appetite.   The People’s Bank of China increased both the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is Gold Just a Fear Trade?

Posted on December 19, 2010 by macromon

We hear a lot of noise today about how fear is dissipating with the collapse of the VIX and that the gold trade is therefore over.  This motivated us to look at how the GLD trades with big moves in … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

POMO Squeeze – Bonds Rally

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

The Fed really got its money worth today, buying $2 BN of bonds with maturities in the range of  08/15/2028 – 11/15/2040.    Long-term interest rates fell 10-20 bps.  Just another example of how bonds behave when the parents are home.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

How is Money Defined?

Posted on December 16, 2010 by macromon

Be sure to catch Krugman’s post, What is Money? We have issues with his extreme partisanship, but the economics of the piece is excellent.  He raises some very good points on how difficult it is even just to define money, … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy | Tagged | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments