Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

The Yoke is Hard and the Debt Burden is Heavy

Posted on October 30, 2010 by macromon

We found this table from Brookings very interesting.  The net public debt per worker of the Advanced Economies in the G20 has increased from US$33K in 2007 t0 US$50.2 in 2010, an increase of 50 percent and projected to grow … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Robert Prechter’s 100 Predictions – 7 years later

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

Here are 100 predictions that Elliot Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter, made in October 2003.  As my econ professor once said, “if you’re going to forecast, forecast a lot and forecast often.” No mention of the rise of Apple or the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk, Whales | Tagged , | 10 Comments

France’s half-century spending spree is coming to an end

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

Run don’t walk to James Traub’s Foreign Policy’s piece, The Spectacle of the Society.  Sarkozy’s approval ratings are at 30 percent as he battles rioters.   There is a lot here, even for Americans: The drama of rewriting the postwar social … Continue reading →

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Did the Chinese Drop a Rare Earth Trade Bomb?

Posted on October 20, 2010 by macromon

Call us paranoid, but what would you conclude from the following headlines: Oct. 15:  U.S. launches trade investigation into China’s green tech sector – Xinhua Oct 19:  China to limit exports of ‘rare earth’ minerals vital to energy tech – … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Currency, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Rare Earth Stocks Up Big on China Restrictions

Posted on October 19, 2010 by macromon

China announced further limits on its Rare Earth exports today.  The country controls 97 percent of the world’s supply, which are critical for hi-tech products, including smart phones, hybrid and electric vehicles,  and cruise missiles.   Hard to read if … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical, Politics, Rare Earth Elements, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Fed creating “grave distortions” – Brazil Central Bank

Posted on October 18, 2010 by macromon

Brazil is considering additional measures to keep the Real from appreciating  any further.  We like the Economist’s Big Mac Index, which is based on the concept of purchasing-power parity, to get a sense of the over/undervaluation of a currency.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rare Earth Day 2.0

Posted on October 18, 2010 by macromon

Take a look at Rare Earth (not the band) today.  Lots of market buzz as Molycorp (MCP) up over 10 percent and Rare Earth Elements (REE) up over 22 percent.  Recall our take on the Rare Earth trade as “gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Geopolitical, Gold, Politics, Rare Earth Elements, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

The Greatest Trade Ever?

Posted on October 15, 2010 by macromon

Check out Bespoke’s great table of Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices.   We don’t trade CDS, but doesn’t Long China/Short Japan,  straight up,  seem like the greatest trade ever? Or just outright short at 53 bps?   Japan’s public funding requirement is almost … Continue reading →

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Chinese Solar Spanked on US Trade Rep Announcement

Posted on October 15, 2010 by macromon

Holders of Chinese solar stocks got a little taste of what a trade war could feel like.  Trina Solar fell more than 9 percent as U.S. Trade Representative, Ron Kirk, announced his office has launched an investigation into the Chinese … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Currency, Equities, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Krugman’s Dangerous Misreading of the Bond Market

Posted on October 14, 2010 by macromon

During his Sunday appearance (click for interview) on This Week With Christiane Amanpour, Paul Krugman spoke the words that make us very uncomfortable. Responding to French finance minister Christine Lagarde’s fiscal austerity and Alan Greenspan’s caution about further stimulus, Krugman … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments