Tag Archives: Interest rates

Swan Lake – June 12

Posted on June 12, 2018 by macromon

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM Euro sovereign spreads were stable today.  The Italy … Continue reading →

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QE And The Laurel vs. Yanny Distortion

Posted on June 4, 2018 by macromon

Interesting clip from Wired,  interviewing  a neuroscientist explaining how people get the sound Laurel and Yanny name so different. The interview is profound if you take the principles and apply them to the markets.  It’s all about reading the correct … Continue reading →

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

QOTD: Druck On Distorted Interest Rates

Posted on May 13, 2018 by macromon

…today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be regularly distorted by public intervention. …If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Interest Rates, Quote of the Day, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

QOTD: Paul Tudor Jones

Posted on May 8, 2018 by macromon

Note, no mention of “recession”, the trigger for the cheerleaders.  The bear market of    1962 and 1987 occurred with robust economic growth. You look at every bear market and they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation … Continue reading →

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Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates

Posted on May 3, 2018 by macromon

There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will always find a way to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

Week In Review – April 20

Posted on April 22, 2018 by macromon

Bond Yields, Bond Yields, and More Bond Yields  The U.S. 10-year closed at its highest yield on a weekly basis since year-end 2013. A weekly close above 3.03 percent signals big trouble ahead.   The confluence of fundamentals – i.e., inflationary … Continue reading →

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Upward Pressure On Interest Rates To Continue

Posted on March 10, 2018 by macromon

Though wage inflation came in nice and cool on Friday,  the following chart illustrates why upward pressure on long-term interest rates will continue.   We updated our Who’s Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit chart with the just released Flow of Funds … Continue reading →

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Stocks And Bonds Now Joined At The Hip

Posted on February 25, 2018 by macromon

Market Recovery The U.S. stock market rallied Friday on the six bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield.  The S&P500 has now recovered 63.09 percent of its peak-to-low loss.  We are looking for 2,805 on the S&P500 for a green … Continue reading →

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Bunds Wagging Treasuries

Posted on September 28, 2017 by macromon

Take a look at the comparison chart of the nearest Bund and U.S. 10-year T-Note futures. Contrary to popular belief, this latest bond market sell-off was led by the German Bund and not U.S. Treasuries, flopping due to the current market … Continue reading →

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Debate Within The FOMC: Bubblistas v. Efficient Marketistas?

Posted on August 22, 2017 by macromon

We have finally made the time to more closely review the release of last week’s Fed minutes from the July 25-26 meeting.   We kind of like what we see. Debate Breaking Out Among FOMC Members? A debate appears to breaking … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments