Monthly Archives: November 2010

China Rising: THE MARKET for Exports

Posted on November 20, 2010 by macromon

We thought these charts of export markets from Barclays Capital to be very illustrious of the dynamic changes taking place in global trade.  China is becoming a larger export market than the U.S. for many countries, including Australia, Brazil, Korea, … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Equities, Geopolitical, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Posted on November 18, 2010 by macromon

Correlation = 1)  causality; 2) spurious; or 3) reverse causality?   You decide….. Source: Bond Vigilantes

Posted in Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Muni Market Rebounds, California Prices RANs

Posted on November 18, 2010 by macromon

After widening 70 bps, long-term California munis rebounded today, tightening as much as 6-10 bps.  California priced $10 BN of Revenue Anticaption Notes (RANs)  paying higher than their initial target price.  Notes from the $2.25 billion Series A-1 mature in … Continue reading →

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Republicans Pound Fed, “Lasso” Gold Rally

Posted on November 17, 2010 by macromon

On September 30th we wrote (click here)  of the “hard money inclinations” of the Republicans and how a electoral victory may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to reign in their money printing.  On election night, we also posted the … Continue reading →

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Muni Meltdown: All Eyes on California

Posted on November 16, 2010 by macromon

As the world focuses on Ireland, the hammering of the U.S. muni market continued today even as the treasury bond market rallied sharply.  As the case with any sell-off, it is difficult to discern fundamentally why the market is in … Continue reading →

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“This could break backs…economies toward bankruptcy”

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

These were the words of Greek prime minister George Papandreou, speaking about Germany’s tough stance on burden sharing during his visit to Paris.   The fracturing of the eurozone appears to be accelerating, or, at best, the fault lines are beginning … Continue reading →

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Stat of the Day: Average Daily Return on Up Days…..

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

We thought this is an interesting statistic.   Of the major equity markets we track, the Brazilian Bovespa ranks número um in terms of the average daily return on up days.  We need to do further work on this,  controlling for … Continue reading →

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10-year Treasury Bond Rate At Key Resistance

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces on the Treasury market about the bond’s positive technicals versus poor fundamentals.   The 10-year rate is now close to  piercing through key resistance at 2.83 percent.   It is difficult to fundamentally determine why rates are moving … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

The Golden Technicals

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

We closed out our gold position after last week’s failed bounced and ugly action. The trade is crowded and nervous about China tightening and European debt worries.  The levels we’re watching  to reopen the position is $1395 on the upside … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis

Posted on November 14, 2010 by macromon

We are becoming more concerned that 2011 may be shaping up to be the year of the public debt crisis.  Greenspan seems to share those concerns.  The Hill writes, “Look, I think something equivalent to what Erskine Bowles and Alan … Continue reading →

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