Category Archives: Bonds

Cleveland Fed Dishes On Yield Curve Signal

Posted on April 2, 2018 by macromon

Check out the latest from the Cleveland Fed president,  Loretta Mester: Mester advised that there is “no evidence” for thinking that a flatter curve signals a weaker economy at this time, Reuters reported. She added that “structural factors,” such as bond-buying by central … Continue reading →

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Q1 in Review

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon

Q1: Lake Placid To The Mavericks The markets closed out the quarter trying to recover from one of the biggest volatility shocks in history, which began in early February.   The question for Q2 is:  Was the v-shock a one-off or a … Continue reading →

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Still No Relief From The Bond Market

Posted on March 25, 2018 by macromon

Last week the S&P500 sold down 5.95 percent. We noted in an earlier post, Why This Correction Is Different, in that the current sell-off is different from all other corrections over the past 30 years (except a special case in … Continue reading →

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Why This Correction Is Different

Posted on March 18, 2018 by macromon

Those dreaded words you never want to hear as an investor, “this time is different.” Stock and Bond Correlation It does apply to the latest stock market correction, however. The sell-off that began on January 29th spanned ten trading days and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Fed, Uncategorized | 30 Comments

Foreign Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries (TIC) – Jan ’18

Posted on March 15, 2018 by macromon

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) flows for January are out today.    As we suspected, foreign central banks have been net sellers over the past few months. Looking at both private and official flows in China and Japan, the two … Continue reading →

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Pas de merde…

Posted on March 13, 2018 by macromon

…and wait until they internalize these numbers. Bond traders are beginning to be concerned about rising deficits and national debt again https://t.co/VeBwC2yUWS #fixthedebt — Fix the Debt (@FixtheDebt) March 13, 2018

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The “Navarro Falls” Beckon

Posted on March 6, 2018 by macromon

Right on schedule the barrel and catalyst —  in the form of Gary Cohn’s resignation — cue up to take stocks over the waterfall. Let’s call it what it is, “The Niagara Navarro Falls“. . Cramer’s Mad Money Wow, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Jim Grant: Italian Junk Bonds With A “Zero Handle”

Posted on March 2, 2018 by macromon

Great video clip with Jim Grant dishing on the upside-down world of risk assets and the massively distorted global bond markets. “As an example of where the world is mispricing interest rates…look to Italy, which is having a big election … Continue reading →

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Who Is Financing The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Posted on February 26, 2018 by macromon

In case you missed it in our last post, here’s an interesting chart illustrating how the U.S. budget deficit has been funded since 2010 on a quarterly basis.  The data are annualized. During QE2 and QE3, from Q4 2010 to Q4 … Continue reading →

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Stocks And Bonds Now Joined At The Hip

Posted on February 25, 2018 by macromon

Market Recovery The U.S. stock market rallied Friday on the six bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield.  The S&P500 has now recovered 63.09 percent of its peak-to-low loss.  We are looking for 2,805 on the S&P500 for a green … Continue reading →

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