Category Archives: Equities

S&P500 and Years That End In ‘1

Posted on January 9, 2011 by macromon

“Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street.” — Edwin Lefèvre,    Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator Years That End ‘1 Exhibit Strong Seasonality The above was cited in an article in this month’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Nonlinear Thinking: The Coming iApp Economic Revolution

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

2011 – The Year of the App This is freaking amazing!  It’s our sense that in five years Apple may well have reinvented itself into a mobile medical company, where an iPhone/iPad-type device becomes a medical clinic in, say,  a … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Economics, Equities, Video | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Apple the Sovereign

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

Apple traded at $333 in the pre-market this morning as it continues the march to overtake Exxon as the country’s largest company in terms of market capitalization.   We thought we’d share a little perspective. If Apple’s market cap were a … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Equities | Tagged , | 6 Comments

Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010.  Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Confirmation Bias Confirmed!

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

We’re a bit surprised at the response to our post, “If the is Socialism,  call me Comrade.” No, not really.  The title was a bit provocative and the comments about “Joe the Plumber” maybe should have been excluded.   We think … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

If this is Socialism, call me Comrade

Posted on December 31, 2010 by macromon

No politics or partisanship here, “just the facts ma’am”.  The stock market as measured by the S&P500 is up just about 50 percent since President Obama’s inauguration to today’s close.   Only Eisenhowser comes close, but not even in the same … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics | Tagged , , | 17 Comments

The S&P500 in 2011: What’s past is prologue?

Posted on December 31, 2010 by macromon

Let’s be honest and a little humble as we venture into the “great wide open” of 2011. Nobody really has a clue what path the markets will take.  Given what we’ve all been through and the uncertainty and plethora of … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments

The Ambiguity of Stock Value

Posted on December 27, 2010 by macromon

Professor Robert Shiller,  of Yale University,  is probably best known for his book, Irrational Exuberance, which called the top of the dot.com bubble and the second edition called the top in the housing market.  During our days on Wall Street … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Equities | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments