Category Archives: Bonds

Bunds Wagging Treasuries

Posted on September 28, 2017 by macromon

Take a look at the comparison chart of the nearest Bund and U.S. 10-year T-Note futures. Contrary to popular belief, this latest bond market sell-off was led by the German Bund and not U.S. Treasuries, flopping due to the current market … Continue reading →

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Week In Review – September 15

Posted on September 17, 2017 by macromon

Global Stock Indices Good week for stocks. Major U.S. major indices closed at record highs.   Brazilian stocks at new highs as traders remain confident President Temer will implement market reforms even though he faces a second round of corruption … Continue reading →

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The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations

Posted on August 27, 2017 by macromon

We have posted several pieces over this year noting the high correlation of gold and 10-year bond futures. See here, here and here. Here is how the gold ETF (GLD) and the Treasury ETF (TLT) have moved together over various … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Gold, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Week in Review – August 18

Posted on August 20, 2017 by macromon

Stock Indices Argentina stocks up big after the ruling coalition did better than expected in primary legislative elections last Sunday.  Emerging markets generally better bid than DMs.   Europe traded better as it looks the mighty Euro is taking a rest … Continue reading →

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TOTD: Today’s Rare Market Feat

Posted on July 12, 2017 by macromon

This would be the 4th time in 20 years that stocks, bonds and gold all up by > 0.25% on the Fed Chair’s semi-annual testimony.  – Sentimen Trader (TOTD = Table of the Day)

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2017 First Half Key Takeaways

Posted on July 2, 2017 by macromon

Bonds  Big outperformance by local emerging markets and Euro periphery in first half.  Last week was pivotal as some bonds gave back almost entire year due to ECB hawkishness.  Watch this space.  More big moves here will determine asset trading … Continue reading →

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The Bonds With A Draghi Tattoo

Posted on June 29, 2017 by macromon

On Tuesday,  June 27th,  Super Mario said this, “Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.”  – Mario Draghi And here is how global 10-year bond yields reacted, The German 10-year Bund yield increased 77 percent — OK, from a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Euro, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 25 Comments

The Ambiguity of Stock Value: Why It’s So Difficult to Call The Top

Posted on June 28, 2017 by macromon

This is one of our favorite posts of all-time. Thought it apropos to re-post given that everyone and their mother is trying to call the top in stocks.  It’s all about yield-seeking capital flows, my friends.   Tell us what interest … Continue reading →

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The Rack Trade

Posted on June 27, 2017 by macromon

Ever have a pairs (spread) trade where both sides were moving against you?  Ouch!  Been there, don’t want to do that.   Well, this is what we call the rack trade  (Kudos to Doug Skrypek for coining the term).   You … Continue reading →

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Emerging Market Dollar Bonds: An Option Based Analysis

Posted on June 21, 2017 by macromon

In my prior life I used to trade emerging market (EM) bonds and came up with the following analytical framework using options analysis to understand and teach the basic fundamental principles of how to value EM hard currency bonds.   The … Continue reading →

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