Category Archives: Bonds

Is the Fed Contributing to the Credit/Mortgage Crunch?

Posted on September 27, 2011 by macromon

One of the smartest hedge fund managers we know spends most of his day locked away in his office analyzing how the market consensus could be wrong.  He hangs with au contraire crowd, breaking bread with contrarians and demands you … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

La Grande Divergence

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

Great chart of eurozone sovereign 10-year yields from Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute.  We made a decent living off the “great convergence trade” of the 1990’s, where yields of the eurozone sovereigns collapsed on top of each other.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Holders of Sovereign Debt

Posted on September 20, 2011 by macromon

Here’s a great chart just released by the International Monetary Fund.   Note that almost half — 47 percent —  of the US$14.7 trillion U.S. federal government debt is held by the Federal Reserve and the government itself, such as the … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Why Italy Matters

Posted on September 19, 2011 by macromon

Standard and Poor’s  just announced they’ve downgraded Italy’s credit rating to A from A+, with a negative outlook.   Italy is the camel that will break Europe’s back if they can’t contain the crisis to the smaller countries of the periphery.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Robert Prechter: “Junk bond prices are going to go to zero.”

Posted on September 17, 2011 by macromon

His predictions, advice and timing have always been tough to act and trade on and, like all of us, is wrong a lot.  But here’s the latest to feed your inner macro bear.  Roarrrrr!! (click here if video is not … Continue reading →

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Is the U.S. Becoming Japan?

Posted on September 12, 2011 by macromon

As Treasury bond yields tumble to record lows we’re hearing lots of talk the U.S. is following the economic trajectory of Japan.  Not so fast!   Take a look at the following chart. After 990 days trading days from peaking, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Global Stock Performance, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

European Leaders Take the Fork in the Road

Posted on September 8, 2011 by macromon

Good piece in the Economist, Europe’s debt crisis: Fudge, the final frontier, summing up the crisis in the Eurozone.   Even a little history lesson, SEPTEMBER is a cruel month in international monetary history, when regimes that once seemed inviolate … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Connect the Carry Trades

Posted on September 7, 2011 by macromon

Wow! This chart from the Economist looks like one of those elementary school exams where you draw lines to connect the best match.   So, our friends,  a few questions.  Which rates are the result of financial repression, capital flows, and/or … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Get Them to the Greek (Writedowns) – IASB

Posted on August 29, 2011 by macromon

Wow! Just came across this piece from the FT about the concerns of the International Accounting Standards Board  (IASB) of how European financial institutions have not reserved enough against potential credit losses on their Greece sovereign bond holdings.  Are these … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride!

Posted on August 9, 2011 by macromon

Wow! What a day.  Incredible moves.   Scared markets.   Capital stampeding like buffalo not knowing where to go.   Great if you’re on the right side of the volatility, but you still needed a neck brace from the whiplash. It’s gonna … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment