The Fall Classic Cometh – Go Nats!

Wow!  I can’t believe it’s been a year since we posted the following piece on the World Series, which begins tonight.  The Houston Astros take on the NL champs, the Washington Nationals in the best of seven games.   Washington, D.C. hasn’t hosted a World Series since 1933 when the then Senators lost to the New York Giants.

The Stock Market and Washington World Series

For the superstitious and those into spurious correlation,  1933 was the Dow Jones Industrials Average Index best year ever, increasing 63.7 percent after the FDR government came to power.  Much of the price action was a big bounce and snapback after the big losses in the prior four years.

World Series

 

Taking the Nationals Senators   

Since attending graduate school and starting my career in the nation’s Capitol,  I have always had an affinity for D.C. teams.  Washington did not have a baseball team at the time so to get my horsehide fix I would travel 40 miles north to Baltimore to watch Cal Ripken and the Orioles play.

Shortly after arriving in Washington I purchased a Senators shirt to workout in and did so religiously during my 5 years in the Capitol.  I still have that shirt.

The original Washington Senators moved to Minnesota to become the Twins in 1960, and the new Senators franchise moved to Dallas in 1972 to become the Texas Rangers.   The Nationals were created in 2005,  born again from their previous life as the Montreal Expos.

Our money is and has been on the Nats at 20:1 (before playoffs began),  as we believe know good pitching always stops good hitting.   The ‘Stros have an excellent pitching staff but if Strasburg and Scherzer are on,  nobody can touch them.

Foreign Players From Shithole Countries

We are betting many Yankee fans are wishing President Trump’s tough immigration policies were in place when Jose Altuve, the smallest player in baseball, who beat them with a walk-off home run on Saturday night, came to the U.S. from Venezuela.

As a teenager in Venezuela, he was cut from an Astros tryout because the organization considered him too short. According to a 2014 Sports Illustrated profile, Altuve’s father coaxed him to return to the next tryout, where he earned his way into a deal with Houston and a signing bonus of $15,000, a small fraction of what the top amateurs typically receive.  – Atlantic

During this Fall Classic, we paraphrase Emma Lazarus’ poem, The New Colossus, which is etched at the foot of the Statue of Liberty.

“Give me your tried, your poor baseball players
Your huddled athletes yearning to play in the World Series,
Send these, the home run hitters, to help entertiain me,
I lift my lamp to the Fall Classic!”

Of the 50 players on the Nationals and Astros roster, 18, or 32 percent are from either Venezuela, the DR, Cuba, Mexico, or Brazil.

I am not going to feel ripped off or exploited by the Latin American countries as we watch the Dominican, Juan Soto and the Venezuelan,  Jose Altuve battle it out for the next two weeks.  Nor will we be upset that those two players “stole” a job from an American, they earned it!

The U.S. runs a yuuge trade deficit in baseball talent with the rest of the world (ROW), and thank goodness for that!   Our guess is much of data, if any,  probably shows up in the balance of payments data as foreign remittances as the players send some their earnings back home to family members.  We have to think about and research this more but don’t wait for it. 

At the end of the day,  it’s much more fun and satisfying being both an American and a citizen of the world.  If you’re not, try it, and enjoy.

World Series_2

During the 2016 season, Americans have watched a real World Series, with players born in at least 13 different countries. According to data made public by major league baseball, the leading country of origin for players on 2016 Opening Day rosters (and disabled lists) was the Dominican Republic (82 players), followed by Venezuela (63) Cuba (28), Mexico (12), Japan (8), South Korea (8), Canada (6), Panama (4), Colombia (3), Curacao (3), Brazil (2) and Taiwan (2). (Note: Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens by birth.)

Today, approximately 26% of major league baseball players are foreign-born, a more than five-fold increase from the 1940s. In the World Series, the Chicago Cubs have 6 foreign-born players and the Cleveland Indians have 5 foreign-born players on their rosters.  – Forbes

Long Nationals, short nationalists.

Repost

Mr. October And Me

Check out our personal story about Reggie Jackson, Mr. October.

Ahh, the Fall Classic!

We’re not talking about October stock market corrections but the World Series!   The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers square off tonight to begin the 114th October Classic.

 

Reggie_3

 

The last time the two teams met was in 1916 when the Dodgers were test driving a new nickname, the “Robins.”   The Red Sox beat Brooklyn four games to one.  Casey Stengel starred for the Robins, and Babe Ruth pitched thirteen shutout innings after giving up a run in the first inning to win the fourteen-inning game two.  The winning players share (World Series bonus) was $3,910 ($87,500 in 2018 dollars) versus the last year’s Astros’ player share of  $438,901.

Mr. October

No baseball player is more synonymous with the World Series than Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson.

 

Reggie_2

 

Jackson earned the nickname “Mr. October” with his performance in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Down 3-2 in the fourth inning, the Yankees outfielder hit a two-run home run and did the exact same thing in the fifth inning. Then in the eighth, he hit another home run to put the Yankees up 8-3. His performance secured the win and the series for New York.
Athlon Sports

 

Reggie and Me

I have truly lived a Walter Mitty life.

The first twenty-five years of my life was baseball, 24/7, an obsession that almost compares to today’s techno-addicted youth.

My baseball career ended due to an injury, but also mainly the lack of emotional maturity and the ability to pull out of an ugly hitting slump.  Nothing worse for your confidence than cruising along during the season hitting .350, then to fall into a 2-for-50 tailspin.  Then comes the vicious circle thinking you will never get another hit.  Ironically, baseball players can fail 70 percent of the time, and still hit .300, making  it to the Hall of Fame.

It’s very similar to what happens to your psyche and P&L, trying to trade crude oil and natural gas against the ‘bots.  You gotta shake off the bad ones and move on.   I could’ve been somebody, damn it!

I did have a headstart in baseball as a young teen working with the Los Angeles Dodgers, first as a batboy, then batting practice pitcher, and adjunct bullpen catcher.  Later, I would spend some time with the Atlanta Braves and Oakland A’s.

I caught Tommy John (TJ) — the real one, who had the surgery named for him – for almost the entire season he was out before his remarkable comeback.  He could barely extend his hand after the surgery but refused to give up.  I would try to hide in the outfield before games but would soon hear Red Adams, the Dodgers pitching coach, calling me to come to the bullpen.

TJ was very wild when he first started on the comeback trail, bouncing curveballs in the dirt, which too often ended up smacking me in the family jewels.  It was a painful year, and it’s  amazing that I could still have children. Tommy John is one of the greatest human beings ever.

Reggie

One winter or spring during the off-season, can’t recall,  I get a call from my boss to come to Dodger Stadium for a few days as Reggie Jackson was going to film a television commercial.  He said the production company might need a pitcher or catcher and I should be around to help Reggie around the clubhouse and stadium.

I wasn’t in the union so being in the commercial was out.

Over the next three days,  Reggie and I became very close.  He treated me like I was his little brother.  Reggie had this larger than life image, with a reputation for a larger than life ego.

…it all flows from me. I’m the straw that stirs the drink – Reggie Jackson,  Sports Illustrated, May 1977

He took a lot of heat for that quote, and still denies it,  and I certainly didn’t see the Reggie ego the media often portrayed.   He was super kind, friendly, down to earth, always made time for you, and was just a great guy to hang out with.  He made you feel comfortable and not conscious you were in the presence of one of baseball’s greatest stars.  It was very much like a good day hanging with your big brother.

Self-centered egomaniacs don’t treat the little people like that.

One thing that really stood out over our three days together was how Reggie spoke.  He sounded like an university professor, very intelligent,    Later I found out he has an IQ of 160, the same as Steven Hawing!   That is genius zip code.

Pumas  

What really sealed the deal was when Reggie finished filming and was about to leave.  He handed me a piece of paper with an address and phone number:

22 Yankee Hill
Oakland, Ca
(415) xxx-xxxx

He said when I was in the Bay Area; I would never stay in a hotel but with him.   I believe that house burnt down in the 1991 Oakland Hills fire.

He then asked for my shoe size and address.  We shook hands and parted ways.

About a week later five boxes of Puma tennis shoes came in the mail.  Thank you,  Reggie!

Baltimore Orioles

The next season,  the A’s traded Reggie to the Baltimore Orioles as a rental.  He was playing out his option and Charles Finley, the A’s owner, would never pay Reggie’s new market rate.

Reggie

My little brother idolized Reggie, so when the O’s were in town, I took him to a game.  After the game,  I went down to the dugout to say hi as Reggie trotted in from the outfield.  He invited me into the clubhouse.  I asked Reg if my little brother could accompany me.  He said absolutely.

I had told Reggie about my brother, and when we get into the clubhouse, he points to his locker and says,  “Geoff, anything, take anything you want. My uniform, glove, anything.”   Big egos and the self-absorbed don’t treat little people like this.

I love Reggie Jackson.

Pete Rose

Pete Rose was the same way, by the way.  Always thinking and caring about the little guy.

The commish of baseball,  Bart Giamatti, my favorite actor’s father,  died just eight days after banishing Charlie Hustle from baseball.   Just sayin’.

Let’s play ball.   Dodgers in six.

 

 

Posted in Sports, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Time To Start Discounting A Hard Left Turn

 “I don’t like the Democrats, but Trump is destroying the Republic!  – Retired Four-Star General (See Admiral McRaven’s editoral below) 

Last week was a very bad week for President Trump and may, in hindsight, be the tipping point of his presidency and the Republican Party.   We list and explain the four political bombshells that exploded, which we believe will work its way through the American political system and eventually adversely impact the risk markets.

Senate Republicans will soon have to choose between Mr. Trump or the rule of law and the Constitution.  Public opinion is quickly moving toward the later, where a majority of the country now supports the impeachment and removal of President Trump.

Gallup

We suspect public opinion for impeachment and removal will continue to move north putting pressure on Senate Republicans, especially the 23 who are running for re-election next year.  They will be no longer be able to evade and obfuscate their support for Trump and will be forced to go on record for the history books during a Senate trial early next year.

We think resignation is more likely than removal but Trump won’t go quietly, increasing the political risk on the American street.  President Trump is becoming increasingly toxic to the Republican Party and we sense they know it.

The President consistently polls 20-30 points underwater with women and younger voters.

Mr. Market and President Warren

Our priors are that a huge 2020 Blue Tsunami swamps the White House, Senate, and House is a much higher probability than is currently priced.  The markets will soon have to discount the potential for a President Warren,  backed by a Democratic House and Senate, and we don’t believe it will be a bullish repricing.

Political Demographics

The math of the country’s political demographics just are not conducive to anything close to a Red Tide in 2020 or beyond, and last week’s events reinforced it.   Far, far from it.

In fact, the math over the next few decades is going to be brutal for Republicans.

Voter Turnout By Generation

The younger generations, who are woke, are left of the salad fork, and now, for the first time, a larger voting block than the boomers.

David Brooks

A Democratic voter’s race, sex or education level doesn’t predict which candidate he or she is leaning toward, but age does.

In one early New Hampshire poll, Joe Biden won 39 percent of the vote of those over 55, but just 22 percent of those under 35, trailing Bernie Sanders. Similarly, in an early Iowa poll, Biden won 41 percent of the oldster vote, but just 17 percent of the young adult vote, placing third, behind Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

As Ronald Brownstein pointed out in The Atlantic, older Democrats prefer a more moderate candidate who they think can win. Younger Democrats prefer a more progressive candidate who they think can bring systemic change.  – NY TImes

If the young, who traditionally to like stay home and play on their iPhones on election day, come out and vote en masse in 2020, as they did and almost doubled their turnout in the 2018 midterms,  you best start getting used to saying, President Warren,  Speaker Pelosi, and Majority Leader Schumer.

Mr. Market is going to have big trouble getting there.

Last Week’s Big Four Events And The Tipping Point

1. The Revenge Of The Four Stars

A retired four-star admiral, who led the raid and capture of Osama Bin Laden pens an Op/Ed piece that states the country is effectively under attack by the President of the United States.  Then the POTUS is openly mocked by his former Defense Secretary and a four-star General at Thursday’s annual Al Smith dinner.  Stunning and unprecedented.

These great patriots aren’t exactly “deep state” bureaucrats and can’t be easily dismissed with a 6:00 AM Tweet.

We think President Trump really hurt himself by trashing his former defense secretary and retired four-star General James Mattis during the now-infamous “all roads with you lead to Putin” meeting with Congressional leaders that went way-off the rails at the White House on last Wednesday.   President Trump called Mattis “the world’s most overrated general.” 

Pelosi

The “Warrior Monk” is well respected and loved throughout the U.S. military and defense community.    

Mattis responded, albeit with humor, to Trump’s remarks at  the Al Smith dinner on Thursday night.

I earned my spurs on the battlefield,” he said at a charity gala in New York on Thursday night. “Donald Trump earned his spurs in a letter from a doctor.” – Washington Post

Ouch!

At least watch the first two minutes of the following video of his speech on Wednesday, then fast forward to minute 8:00, where the General cites President Lincoln.  Better yet, watch the speech in its totality.  

 

Along with most of the country, we really admire  the Warrior Monk, especially after reading this story,

…Mattis has a compassionate side to him. The story goes that Mattis stood duty on Christmas back when he was a brigadier general so that a younger Marine could spend the holiday with his family.

…retired Marine Gen. Charles Krulak, who was commandant when the story took place. Every Christmas during his tenure, Krulak delivered cookies to every Marine duty post around Washington and Quantico, Va.

Back in 1998, he was making his final delivery to Marine Corps Combat Development Command headquarters at Quantico when he asked the Marine on duty who the officer of the day was.

“The young Marine said, ‘Sir, it’s Brigadier General Mattis.’”

Krulak thought the Marine had misunderstood him, so he asked again, but he got the same answer.

“I looked around the duty hut and in the back, there were two cots: One for the officer of the day and one for young Marine. I said, ‘OK, let me cut through all of this: Who was the officer who slept in that bed last night?’

“And the Marine said, ‘Sir, Brigadier General Mattis.’”

At that moment, Mattis walked around the corner.

“So I said to him, ‘Jim, what are you standing the duty for?’ “And he said, ‘Sir, I looked at the duty roster for today and there was a young major who had it who is married and had a family; and so I’m a bachelor, I thought why should the major miss out on the fun of having Christmas with his family, and so I took the duty for him.’ ”  — Stars & Stripes

What a good man and incredible warrior.

The Other Four Star

Go no further for more evidence the President is losing the confidence of the top military brass, at least, publicly, of retired admirals and generals, than Admiral McCraven’s Op/Ed in the NY Times.  McRaven, is a retired Navy Seal, and was charged with the raid that captured Osama Bin Laden.  I just finished his book, Sea Stories: My Life in Special Operationswhere he devotes a fascinating and gripping chapter to Operation Neptune Spear.

Here are the money quotes from his NY Times piece,

 

McRaven

  • …beneath the outward sense of hope and duty that I witnessed at these two events, there was an underlying current of frustration, humiliation, anger and fear that echoed across the sidelines. The America that they believed in was under attack, not from without, but from within.
  • These men and women, of all political persuasions, have seen the assaults on our institutions: on the intelligence and law enforcement community, the State Department and the press. They have seen our leaders stand beside despots and strongmen, preferring their government narrative to our own. They have seen us abandon our allies and have heard the shouts of betrayal from the battlefield. As I stood on the parade field at Fort Bragg, one retired four-star general, grabbed my arm, shook me and shouted, “I don’t like the Democrats, but Trump is destroying the Republic!
  • ..We are not the most powerful nation in the world because of our aircraft carriers, our economy, or our seat at the United Nations Security Council. We are the most powerful nation in the world because we try to be the good guys. We are the most powerful nation in the world because our ideals of universal freedom and equality have been backed up by our belief that we were …champions of justice, the protectors of the less fortunate
  • If our promises are meaningless, how will our allies ever trust us? If we can’t have faith in our nation’s principles, why would the men and women of this nation join the military? And if they don’t join, who will protect us? If we are not the champions of the good and the right, then who will follow us? And if no one follows us — where will the world end up?
  • …if this president doesn’t understand their importance, if this president doesn’t demonstrate the leadership that America needs, both domestically and abroad, then it is time for a new person in the Oval Office — Republican, Democrat or independent — the sooner, the better. The fate of our Republic depends upon it.  – Admiral McRaven former commander of the United States Special Operations Command

2. G7 At Trump National Doral — The Damage Is Done

Though President Trump almost immediately reversed himself on holding next year’s G7 Summit at one of his properties, caving to major pushback from the Republican Senate,  the political damage is done.  How many moderates do you think he lost by this blatant act of corruption?

One thing we have learned with and since the election of Donald Trump is the electorate doesn’t do swamp.  Ask Joe Biden, who is now plummeting in the polls as voters become aware of the jobs and money his son, Hunter, made, through the nepotism of his father.  It may have not been illegal but it sure as hell was swampy.

Nothing compares to the ultimate swampiness of Trump trying to hold the G7 at Trump National Doral, however.  It’s jaw-dropping swampiness and, more important, outright illegal.

We pecked out the following on Friday afternoon fully anticipating the G7 was never going to happen at Trump National Doral.   We weren’t expecting such a quick reversal, however,  but think you will find what we wrote informative, if not a  bit entertaining, nonetheless.

We thought, at least, at the very last resort (pun intended)  the Federal courts would step in never allow it under the “phony”, according to President Trump,  Emoluments Clause of the U.S Constitution, Article I, Section 9:

Clause 8, Titles of Nobility and Emoluments

“Clause 8: No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.” – U.S. Constitution

We suspect President Trump lost the support of many, if not most of the remaining moderates just by the announcement the G7 Summit will be held at his Trump National.  That is about as swampy as it gets, folks.

Walking it back won’t bring the moderates back but may eventually add to one of his articles of impeachment.

Nonetheless, the choice of Doral was very apropos as it’s location is only 42 miles north of the Everglades National Park, one of the world’s most famous swamps.

Doral_Everglades.png

 

Do the math, folks, that is less distance than 10 rounds of golf from the 7,510 yards Tips at Doral’s Blue Monster golf course.

 

Doral_Scoreboard

 

3. Confessions Of An “Acting” Chief of Staff

President Trump’s acting Cheif of Staff, Mick Mulvaney’s quid pro quo and “get over it” presser on Thursday may go down as one of the most famous confessions since Saint Augustine’s classic book.

 

Confessions

 

He walked it all back the next day in the Augustinian spirit of “Lord, make me chaste  – but not yet!”   We wait with great anticipation to see if walks back the walk back under oath or after he is thrown under the greyhound.

We are not going to comment on the news conference but will let you view it in full, right here.

 

4. Trump and Pence Rolled By Erdogan Like A Cheap Cigar

Donald Trump got “rolled” by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a National Security Council source with direct knowledge of the discussions told Newsweek.

In a scheduled phone call on Sunday afternoon between President Trump and President Erdogan, Trump said he would withdraw U.S. forces from northern Syria. The phone call was scheduled after Turkey announced it was planning to invade Syria, and hours after Erdogan reinforced his army units at the Syrian-Turkish border and issued his strongest threat to launch a military incursion, according to the National Security Council official to whom Newsweek spoke on condition of anonymity

…”President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdraw to make it look like we are getting something—but we are not getting something,” the National Security Council source told Newsweek. “The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that’s the bottom line.”  – Newsweek

We are all for bringing our troops home and ending the forever wars.  But these troops are not coming home and they were tantamount to the Dutch boy with his finger in the dike holding back the dam from breaking.   The dam is now broken and we will witness the consequences of the disastrous flood unfold during the next year of the presidential campaign.  Not Republican positive, in our opinion.

America Throws The Kurds Under The Bus, Again 

The poor Kurds.  I do remember how Bush #41 left them hanging out to dry after the first Gulf War for Sadaam to slaugter.

Nothing in this world is certain except death, taxes, and America betraying the Kurds.

The U.S. has now betrayed the Kurds a minimum of eight times over the past 100 years. The reasons for this are straightforward.

The Kurds are an ethnic group of about 40 million people centered at the intersection of Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Many naturally want their own state. The four countries in which they live naturally do not want that to happen.  — The Intercept

Upshot

The world seems Fubared with little hope but we can’t stop fighting, folks.   Republican, Democrat, or Independent.

Should stocks be making new all-time highs?   We don’t think so, but they seem to want to, for now.

We believe the market is in a long topping process, are at historically high valuations, and on the eve of an ugly bear market.   Not much upside, lots of downside, and we just laid out another potential catalyst.

We don’t know the future and nobody else does.  We also, as always, recognize we could be wrong but not because we haven’t done our homework.

Stay frosty, folks.

Subscribers should always do a second read of the material posted by clicking on our blog as we often add important and interesting edits. 

Running Out Of Free Lunches

We are almost out of free lunches, folks, and will be posting only sporadically unless your support increases.   Donate whatever you think is fair by clicking on the PayPal button just below the Twitter and search icons on the upper right-hand side of the blog.  You do not need a PayPal account and can use almost any credit card.

Don’t be a free rider.  Thanks, so much.

free rider

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

Salute, Mad Dog!

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

S&P500 Traces Out A Spinning Top Daily Candlestick

The Difference Between a Spinning Top and a Doji

Spinning tops and dojis both represent indecision. Dojis are smaller, with small real bodies and small upper and lower shadows. The Spinning top has long upper and lower shadows. Both patterns occur frequently and are sometimes used to warn of a reversal after a strong price move. Both types of candlesticks rely heavily on confirmation. A strong move after the spinning top or doji tells more about the new potential price direction than the spinning top or doji itself.  – Investopedia

S&P_Spinning Top

Can’t believe we’ve been sucked into the daily market noise but the recent price action seems kind of important as to whether stocks either break or breakout here.   See our last two posts here and here.

We are far from the old Japanese rice traders who mastered the art of price candlesticks but do use the candles to give us a sense as to where the market’s at,  and to cut through the fog and random noise of daily price movements.

Up On Brexit

The S&P traced out a spinning top today, where much of the move took place before the open when BoJo and the EU announced a Brexit deal.  Now the PM needs to get Parliament to ratify it, which is far from certain.  BoJo needs 320 votes and PredictIt is giving that only a 36 percent probability of happening by the October 31 deadline.

The S&P closed higher than Tuesday’s close, which is positive but it couldn’t hold its gains and was rejected at around 3009, very close to the recent swing closing high.

Key Levels

Stocks_bets_3

 

There does seem to be a lot of confidence and self-interest in the Street that stocks are about to break higher.  And it doesn’t appear there are many sellers and the market trades like speculators are short.

No Short Interest

However, we came across the following Bloomberg piece that dispelled that notion and reinforces our bearish bias. Stocks_bets_1

Bets against U.S. stocks haven’t been this low since last October — just before the deepest sell-off in a decade.

Short sales in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as a percentage of shares outstanding fell to just 2.6% this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd., signaling optimism that American equities can push back toward all-time highs. But the setup has some investors on edge.

“Is it another sign of complacency? Smells like it,” said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone. “The market is being stubbornly optimistic in the face of several headwinds. It does feel dangerous.”  — Bloomberg, Oct 17th

Stocks_bets_2

We have learned through the years when we “feel” like the market is going to move in some direction, it is usually wrong.  We will stick to our flight indicators, such as the daily candles to give us direction.
In summary, the candlesticks seem to be signaling an imminent reversal, valuations are historically expensive,  and short interest is at a 52-week low.

We are looking for confirmation and sell trigger with a break below 2958.

As always, we reserve the right to be wrong and often are.

Stay frosty, folks.

 

Posted in S&P500, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Not Your Father’s First 1,000 Days

One Thousand Days

 

One Thousand Days_3

One Thousand Days_2.png

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Beware Of The S&P’s Doji City

In our Saturday post,  Heads Up! Friday’s Rare S&P Shooting Star Candlestick,  we pointed out the S&P500 had formed a rate shooting star Doji candlestick on Friday with price action that had been observed only once since 2010, last Halloween day.

Run don’t walk to view the post, here.

Halloween 2018

Take a look at last Halloween’s S&P shooting star.  The index consolidated the next few days then gapped up with a nice long green candle, which probably sucked in many traders into long positions.  The next day the S&P formed a long-legged Doji before rolling over to eventually crash to the December 2018 low,  forcing the market socialists to call, no scream for a Fed rescue.

Upshot

The key now is to watch the price action next week.

A break on Monday of 2960 (see below for key support levels) or the formation of more Doji candlesticks will further reduce the market fog and indicate the market is probably headed for some trouble.  — GMM, Oct 12th

Candle_2018

Since Saturday’s post, the S&P500 has formed two daily Doji candlesticks during the past three trading days, including today.  These are signs of indecision by traders.

Our sense is that many traders are expecting a breakout to new highs and were probably sucked into long positions with Tuesday’s big move.

Doji City And Price Reversals

Our observation of the price action over the past few years is that when Dojis begin to become ubitiquous it’s a warning, signal, and confirmation of a potential major price reversal.  It’s not a guarantee but after Friday’s shooting star candle followed by the price action similar to last Halloween,  coupled with the head & shoulders formation, we are on full alert.

Doji City

Key Levels

To the upside is Tuesday’s intraday high of 3003.28  and 3021.99, which would negate the head & shoulders pattern.  A close above 2995.68 (Tuesday’s close) and then 3007.39 would be positive.

To the downside, is the 20-day moving average at 2958, which coincides with some key Fibo levels,  is a must hold.  A break there would trigger a definite sell and, of course with a stop-loss.

Key Levels

Upshot

Short-term trading is very difficult and, in our opinion,  has turned into a mug’s game since the rise of the trading ‘bots and algos.  We have learned the hard way with some very expensive lessons.   Thus, we don’t pay much attention to the daily noise anymore unless we believe a big move may be setting up.

Market Manipulation. 

Moreover, the powers that be have tried their very best to keep the market moving higher.  Beat the Tweets?   Come on, man!

Unless, of course, you know they’re coming.

Read the following, then feel free to throw up.  Make sure to click on the link and read the entire piece.

Vanity Fair

In the last 10 minutes of trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday, September 13, someone got very lucky. That’s when he or she, or a group of people, sold short 120,000 “S&P e-minis”—electronically traded futures contracts linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index—when the index was trading around 3010. The time was 3:50 p.m. in New York; it was nearing midnight in Tehran. A few hours later, drones attacked a large swath of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, choking off production in the country and sending oil prices soaring. By the time the CME next opened, for pretrading on Sunday night, the S&P index had fallen 30 points, giving that very fortunate trader, or traders, a quick $180 million profit.

It was not an isolated occurrence. Three days earlier, in the last 10 minutes of trading, someone bought 82,000 S&P e-minis when the index was trading at 2969. That was nearly 4 a.m. on September 11 in Beijing, where a few hours later, the Chinese government announced that it would lift tariffs on a range of American-made products. As has been the typical reaction in the U.S. stock markets as the trade war with China chugs on without any perceptible logic, when the news about a potential resolution of it seems positive, stock markets go up, and when the news about the trade war appears negative, they go down.

The news was viewed positively. The S&P index moved swiftly on September 11 to 2996, up nearly 30 points. That same day, President Donald Trump said he would postpone tariffs on some Chinese goods, and the S&P index moved to 3016, or up 47 points since the fortunate person bought the 82,000 e-minis just before the market closed on September 10. Since a one-point movement, up or down, in an e-mini contract is worth $50, a 47-point movement up in a day was worth $2,350 per contract. If you were the lucky one who bought the 82,000 e-mini contracts, well, then you were sitting on a one-day profit of roughly $190 million.

…But these wins were peanuts compared to the money made by a trader, or group of traders, who bought 420,000 September e-minis in the last 30 minutes of trading on June 28. That was some 40% of the day’s trading volume in September e-minis—making it a trade that could not easily be ignored. By then, President Trump was already in Osaka, Japan—14 hours ahead of Chicago—and on his way to a roughly hour-long meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping as part of the G20 summit. On Saturday in Osaka, after the market had closed in Chicago, Trump emerged from his meeting with Xi and announced that the intermittent trade talks were “back on track.” The following week was a good one in the stock market, thanks to the Trump announcement. On Thursday, June 27, the S&P 500 index stood at about 2915; a week or so later, it was just below 3000, a gain of 84 points, or $4,200 per e-mini contract. Whoever bought the 420,000 e-minis on June 28 had made a handsome profit of nearly $1.8 billion.

Traders in the Chicago pits have been watching these kinds of wagers with an increasing mixture of shock and awe since the start of the Trump presidency. They are used to rapid fluctuations in the S&P 500 index; volatility is common, of course. But the precision and timing of these trades, and the vast amount of money being made as a result of them, make the traders wonder if all this is on the level. Are the people behind these trades incredibly lucky, or do they have access to information that other people don’t have about, say, Trump’s or Beijing’s latest thinking on the trade war or any other of a number of ways that Trump is able to move the markets through his tweeting or slips of the tongue? Essentially, do they have inside information?

..given how fishy and coincidental the trading in e-minis seems to be these days, the SEC or CFTC would be doing a great service (and their job) for the American people by investigating who is behind these lucrative trades, and what they knew before they placed them. At the moment, what we’re getting from them is an indifferent shrug.

Federal regulators might start here: In the last 10 minutes of trading on Friday, August 23, as the markets were roiling in the face of more bad trade news, someone bought 386,000 September e-minis. Three days later, Trump lied about getting a call from China to restart the trade talks, and the S&P 500 index shot up nearly 80 points. The potential profit on the trade was more than $1.5 billion.  — Vanity Fair, Oct 16th

If the above has any semblance of truth, that kind of swampiness makes the Pantanal in Brazil look like the marsh at our local park.  The fact we have to even think about this kind of bullshit makes us wanna hurl.

As always, we reserve the right to be wrong.

Running Out Of Free Lunches

We are almost out of free lunches, folks, and will be posting only sporadically unless your support increases.   Donate whatever you think is fair by clicking on the PayPal button just below the Twitter and search icons on the upper right-hand side of the blog.  You do not need a PayPal account and can use almost any credit card.

Don’t be a free rider.  Thanks, so much.

free rider

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Most Overvalued Equity Markets – IMF

October Datafest

October is always a month of feasting for us macro data junkies as the IMF releases several of their annual reports and databases, such as the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).   We have a preference for the IMF economists as they don’t have a pom-pom/cheerleading bias in their analysis with a BTFD or “the market is cheap” tint to their narratives as do many sell-side and buy-side analysts, who almost always seem to be talking their books.   Not all, but several.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” — ― Upton Sinclair, I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked

We know first hand as we’ve worked on all sides.  At several Wall Street investment banks, hedge funds, and began our career at one the Bretton Woods institutions.

Academic Versus Market

The IMF and World Bank analysts have an academic bent, however, which also needs to be discounted.  After working on Wall Street for a few years, I went back to Washington to speak with one of my professor friends about finding an arbitrage opportunity in a Korean mutual fund.  He responded,  “That is not supposed to happen, markets are too efficient”    Yeah, right, I thought.  Go talk with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) geniuses who blew up Long Term Capital Management (LTCM).

The moral of the story is, in general, don’t look to academics to help you understand real-world market dynamics to make money trading.   They are very useful on the theory, however.   But you can’t bend theory to fit market price action.  Or, can you?

Finally,  nobody knows the future so we are the first to admit and warn to heavily discount our opinions and market views.  Take them into account with other counter-narratives and you use them to stress test your own views and portfolios.

Overvalued Markets

Here is the nice chart and a short excerpt from the recently released Global Financial Stability Report,

Other risk assets are also showing signs of stretched valuations.  Equity markets appear to be overvalued in Japan and the United States (Figure 1.2, panel 3, shows misalignments scaled by monthly price volatility).  Since April, US equity prices have increased whereas fundamentals-based valuations have declined as higher uncertainty about future earnings outweighed the boost from an expected rebound in earnings and lower interest rates. Equity valuations in major emerging markets, however, are closer to fair value, as investors’ risk appetite may have been tempered by concerns about trade tensions and the economic growth outlook (see Chapter 4)

 

IMF_equity valuations

The equity valuation models presented in this report are based on the dividend discount model(DDM), which explains equity prices as a function of expected corporate earnings, the compensation required to take on equity risk (the equity risk premium), and interest rates.  – IMF, Anex 1.1. Technical Note

We’re not looking for confirmation bias but the above does confirm our bias that U.S. stocks don’t have much room to run to the upside.  See our recent post, How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Just because we and the IMF think the U.S. stock market is overvalued — using totally different metrics, by the way — it doesn’t rule out that stocks can’t break to new highs. Markets always do what they are going to do regardless of whatever the consensus or contrarians believe.

To buy higher, however,  would be tantamount to picking up nickels in front of a steam roller and dangerous to your financial health, in our opinion.

Whither Japan

It is also stunning to see that Japan’s stock market is so overvalued.

The NIKKEI stock index is still 42 percent below its high 30-years after the December 29, 1989 peak of 38,957, even after 20 years of zero and negative interest rates (ZIRP & NIRP) and a massive quantitative easing (QE) program,  which includes the central bank’s outright purchases of stocks (BoJ is on pace to become the largest shareholder of stocks) and the ballooning of the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet to where its size now exceeds the country’a GDP.   Isn’t it obvious,  QE forever is not going to save U.S. stocks in the long-run?

Imagine the politics and turmoil in the U.S. if the S&P500 is trading at the NIKKEI equivalent of 1745 in 2049?   How would pensioners be living then?  We can get a glimpse of how some of the Japanese elderly are surviving during their stock market’s long secular bear market and zero income on savings.

Japan_pensioners

At a halfway house in Hiroshima – for criminals who are being released from jail back into the community – 69-year-old Toshio Takata tells me he broke the law because he was poor. He wanted somewhere to live free of charge, even if it was behind bars.

“I reached pension age and then I ran out of money. So it occurred to me – perhaps I could live for free if I lived in jail,” he says.

“So I took a bicycle and rode it to the police station and told the guy there: ‘Look, I took this.'”

…Toshio represents a striking trend in Japanese crime. In a remarkably law-abiding society, a rapidly growing proportion of crimes is carried about by over-65s. In 1997 this age group accounted for about one in 20 convictions but 20 years later the figure had grown to more than one in five – a rate that far outstrips the growth of the over-65s as a proportion of the population (though they now make up more than a quarter of the total).  — BBC

Japan_pensioners_2

That is fracking sad and one helluva social security program.  You go, central bankers.

Though we are not expecting the U.S. markets and economy to follow the same path as Japan but the above does illustrate how difficult it is to predict the future.  Ex-ante we tend to believe history progresses in a linear fashion.  Ex-post we see it takes a non-linear path.

The Pacific Century

At peak Japan in 1989, for example, the shelves of bookstores were stocked with titles and themes similar to something to the effect,   “The 21st Century Will Be The Pacific Century.”  Open any one of them back then, read the cover and every author was certainly not focused on a Pacific dominated by China but one controlled by Japan.

Docile Population

Moreover, do you really think the U.S. population would be as docile as the Japanese if the S&P500 is trading at 1745 in 2049?    We don’t.

Upshot

Question everything, including our analysis, take nothing for granted, don’t be complacent and stay alert, folks.

Running Out Of Free Lunches

We are almost out of free lunches, folks, and will be posting only sporadically unless your support increases.   Donate whatever you think is fair by clicking on the PayPal button just below the Twitter and search icons on the upper right-hand side of the blog.  You do not need a PayPal account and can use almost any credit card.

Don’t be a free rider.  Thanks, so much.

free rider

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Watch This [WeWork] Space

A very smart friend of mine thinks WeWork could be the Lehman-like trigger that causes risk premiums, including equity,  to blow out.  Jamie to the rescue with a $5 billion line of credit?

And to think investors almost got stuffed with what was originally valued close to a $50 billion IPO of this toxic waste just a few months ago. Where is the SEC?

We are far from experts on WeWork.  To get the good oil on this fiasco go to NYU prof, Scott Galloway’s blog.

Commercial Real Estate Fallout

WeWork will almost certainly, if it hasn’t already, put, the big hurt on commercial real estate, particularly in New York City and San Francisco,

WeWork_Headline

WeWork has become the biggest tenant in the booming “flexible office” space sector where it holds leases on about 11 million square-feet of the total 70 million square-feet dedicated to the new breed of real estate nationally, according to real-estate brokerage firm CBRE.

The potential spillover, should WeWork start giving back its space, could “negatively affect the valuations of surrounding office properties in those cities – even if they don’t have direct exposure to WeWork,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a weekly client note. – MarketWatch

WeWork_Space.png

Posted in Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Brexit Market Rockin’

The PredictIt market on a Brexit by November 1st is up over 50 percent in the past 24 hours.

The Rules

Prior to 12:00:01 a.m. November 1, 2019 London time, the United Kingdom shall exit the European Union. – PredictIt

Driven by a tape with the following headlines, this one from the WSJ.

Brexit_headline.png

Still, the market is only pricing around a 30 percent probability of an October 31 Brexit, which may be due to the potential for a temporary extension of the deadline to conclude negotiations. We don’t know.

Nevertheless, if you’re confident BoJo can come to an agreement with the EU  and Parliament will pass it, place your bets at PredictIt.

As of the recent price of 31 cents, the two-week return is 225.8 percent if Brexit gets done.  It’s a binary trade if you hold it to maturity (Oct 31) and the loss is 100% if Brexit fails.

We like the fact you can trade in an out of these contracts as the probability of an agreement increases or decreases though they are not that liquid.

If you’re looking to do sizeola, as in >$50k, forget about it.  These are lunch money bets, folks.

If you’re speculating in other markets based on a Brexit event, keep an eye on this one.  Cable is also up almost 2 percent on the day.

To be honest, we never thought Brexit would happen and the UK would hold a second referendum where British voters choose to remain in the EU.   We are not wrong yet as the market odds are still over 3:1 that Brexit gets done on schedule.

Stay tuned.

Brexit_odds_2

 

Posted in Brexit, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Updated:  October 15

Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside.

Macro Valuation Metrics

Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?

Seriously?   Our predisposition to the market is always anchored in time tested valuation metrics, which are hard to manipulate.  That is why we like market capitalization deflated by some macro variables, such as nominal GDP or wages.

Micro measures, such as Price-to-Earnings are way too distorted by buybacks and can be easily manipulated by CFOs, who play around with variables such as depreciation or loss reserves.

Our two favorite are  1) market cap-to-GDP,  which, according to Warren Buffet is,  “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”   Take a look at the following chart and you will understand why the Oracle of Omaha is sitting on a record $122 billion stockpile of cash,  2) the number of hours of work needed to buy the S&P500, not a perfect valuation measure but does track our other favorite quite well.  The average person, making the average salary is not a big holder of stocks but the metric does give a heads up when the stock market becomes divorced from the underlying economic trend.

Take a look at the data and you decide, folks.   Keep in mind, the charts are ratios, not price indices, and can’t continue to rise from lower left to upper right,  forever.

Turn off the talking heads on bubble vision and #FinTwit, who will find it difficult to interpret the following charts because their salaries and year-end bonuses depend on their not understanding them or are incentivized to dismiss them outright.

Valuation Metric_Buffet Indicator        Source:  Advisor Perspectives

 

Valuation Metric_S&P Hours

Run Forest Run

Can markets, once again, convince themselves that historic valuations no longer matter?  That this time is different?

Possibly,  but they will need a prevailing narrative  to fuel the delusion.

Quantitative Easing Forever

It could come in the form QE Forever, which we don’t think is very probable.  That jig is almost up and any further rise in inflation will put a stake through its heart.  The Cleveland Fed’s median CPI just pierced 3 percent for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).

HMedian CPI

Source:  The Daily Shot

AI

Artificial Intelligence?   This is the one to watch, which will be a major disruptive force for decades to come.

The theme goes something like this:  Companies can lay off all their workers and replace them with machines and algorithms, which will inflate margins to infinity and beyond.

The problem with this scenario is it would crush aggregate demand and economic growth.  The geniuses are trying to find a balance and, thus far, have come up with concepts such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

Stay tuned.

Wake us up after the above charts regress to their means, about 40 percent lower.

Running Out Of Free Lunches

We are almost out of free lunches, folks, and will be posting only sporadically unless your support increases.   Donate whatever you think is fair by clicking on the PayPal button just below the Twitter and search icons on the upper right-hand side of the blog.  You do not need a PayPal account and can use almost any credit card.

Don’t be a free rider.  Thanks, so much.

free rider

Posted in Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 75 Comments